AFDHFO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HONOLULU HI
400 AM HST FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TO THE NORTH OF THE STATE CONTINUES TO BRING MODERATE
TRADES TO THE REGION...WHICH WILL CONTINUE INTO SATURDAY. WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE HEADING INTO THE NEW WEEK AS THE HIGH LIFTS
NORTHWARD...AND AN UPPER LEVEL LOW APPROACHES FROM THE EAST. CLOUDS
AND SHOWERS WILL BE CONCENTRATED OVER WINDWARD AND MAUKA AREAS...
WITH MOST OF THE RAIN FALLING DURING THE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNINGS.
THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL LOW MAY ENHANCE TRADE WIND SHOWERS
DURING THE START OF THE NEW WORK WEEK.
&&

.DISCUSSION...
THE SURFACE HIGH FAR NORTH OF THE ISLANDS CONTINUED TO BRING GUSTY
WINDS TO THE ISLANDS OVERNIGHT...WHILE WINDS ATOP HALEAKALA AND THE
BIG ISLAND SUMMITS BEGAN TO DECLINE. THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO BRING
GUSTY WINDS TO MOST OF THE STATE TODAY.

THERE REMAINS GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THE HANDLING OF THE HIGH
OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. THE HIGH IS FORECAST TO REMAIN NEARLY
STATIONARY TODAY AND TOMORROW...AND BEGIN TO LIFT NORTHWARD ON
SUNDAY...SETTLING NORTH OF 40N BY MIDWEEK.

AN UPPER LEVEL LOW NEAR 20N 140W THIS MORNING IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. THERE IS
GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT WITH THIS SCENARIO THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT.
BETWEEN SUNDAY MORNING AND TUESDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE IN THEIR
PLACEMENT OF THE LOW...BUT THEY ALL KEEP IT OVER OR JUST EAST OF THE
MAIN HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. BY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...THE MODELS ARE IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH THE LOW BEING NORTH NORTHWEST OF THE ISLANDS.

THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL HELP TO DISRUPT THE TRADE WIND FLOW AS THE
SURFACE HIGH LIFTS NORTHWARD. SO EXPECTED WINDS TO DECREASE WITH THE
NEW WEEK. THE UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL ALSO HELP TO ENHANCE THE TRADE
WIND SHOWERS AS THE NEW WORK WEEK BEGINS.

THE HIGHER WINDS NEVER MATERIALIZED OVER HALEAKALA. MEANWHILE...THE
CFHT OBSERVATORY ATOP MAUNA KEA HAS REPORTED ADVISORY LEVELS WINDS
SINCE SHORTLY AFTER DAYBREAK ON THURSDAY. OVER THE LAST SEVERAL
HOURS...THE WINDS AT CFHT HAVE BEEN ON THE DECLINE. THE OTHER
REPORTING SITES ON MAUNA KEA ARE ALREADY BELOW ADVISORY LEVELS...SO
HAVE GONE AHEAD AND CANCELLED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR ALL SUMMITS.

&&

.MARINE...
THE TRADES MENTIONED ABOVE...COMBINED WITH ELEVATED SEAS CONTINUE TO
BRING SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY /SCA/ CONDITIONS TO ALL HAWAIIAN WATERS.
THE SCA IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH SATURDAY. HEADING INTO
SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND NIGHT...WINDS WILL BE ON THE DECLINE...WHICH
WILL LIKELY RESULT IN SOME AREAS BEING DROPPED FROM THE SCA.

A SOLID S-SSW SWELL IS CURRENTLY IMPACTING SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS AND A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT. ANOTHER SWELL IS
EXPECTED TO ARRIVE TODAY AND SATURDAY WHICH WILL KEEP ADVISORY
LEVEL SURF ALONG SOUTH FACING SHORES THROUGH SATURDAY. THE ELEVATED
TRADE WINDS WILL ALSO PRODUCE SHORT PERIOD SURF THAT WILL CREATE
ROUGH CONDITIONS ALONG EAST FACING SHORES OF KAUAI...OAHU...
MOLOKAI...MAUI AND THE BIG ISLAND. A HIGH SURF ADVISORY IS IN
EFFECT FOR EAST FACING SHORES OF THESE ISLANDS AS A RESULT.

&&

.AVIATION...
DUE TO STRONG TRADES...AIRMET TANGO WILL CONTINUE FOR LOW LEVEL
TURBULENCE FOR AREAS BELOW 080 S THRU W OF MOUNTAINS FOR THE MAIN
HAWAIIAN ISLANDS. ASSOCIATED TRADE SHOWERS WILL BRIEFLY LOWER
CEILINGS AND VISIBILITY TO MVFR CONDITIONS ON WINDWARD TAF SITES.
HOWEVER...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST
PERIOD.

&&

.HFO WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...

HIGH SURF ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY FOR SOUTH FACING SHORES OF
ALL ISLANDS. HIGH SURF ADVISORY FOR UNTIL 6 PM SATURDAY EAST FACING
SHORES OF KAUAI-OAHU-MOLOKAI-MAUI-THE BIG ISLAND.

SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 6 PM HST SATURDAY FOR ALL WATERS.
&&

$$