AFDJAX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 223 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 ...ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES THROUGH THE WEEKEND... .SHORT TERM...HIGH MOISTURE PLUME WILL ROTATE OVER THE AREA FROM THE SOUTH AS A TROPICAL WAVE MOVES ACROSS S FL AND INTO THE EASTERN GOMEX TONIGHT INTO FRI. TAILORED POPS TO REFLECT STRONGER SUBSIDENCE OVER OUR NE GA ZONES AS EVIDENCED BY TAME AFTN CU FIELD...TO CATEGORICAL ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES WHERE SCT TS AND WIDESPREAD SHRA WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD THROUGH THE EVENING. COULD SEE A FEW STRONG STORMS ACROSS OUR WESTERN GA ZONES AND NORTHERN SUWANNEE RIVER VALLEY THIS AFTN/EVENING WHERE DRIER AIR WILL LIMIT CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT BUT ALSO PROMOTE STRONGER DOWNDRAFTS...OTHERWISE SLOW STORM MOTION AND HIGH PWATS AROUND 2 TO 2.5 INCHES WILL CONTINUE HVY RAINFALL AS THE MAIN CONCERN ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN ZONES. FRI INTO SAT MODELS INDICATE THE TROP WAVE DEVELOPING A BROAD SFC WAVE ACROSS THE EASTERN GOMEX AND MOVING NNE INTO EARLY SAT AS UPPER LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SWLY. MOISTURE ALSO INCREASES FROM THE NORTH AS A WEAKENING SFC FRONT SLIDES SOUTHWARD INTO THE REGION. VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT (PWATS 2.25 INCHES + VIA THE SREF) WILL FOCUS ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE GOMEX WAVE TROUGH WHICH WILL PROGRESS ACROSS OUR ZONES THROUGH THE PERIOD. HAVE INCREASED POPS FRI NIGHT INTO SAT ACCORDINGLY INTO THE LIKELY RANGE WITH ACTIVITY PROGRESSING INLAND FROM THE GOMEX LATE FRI NIGHT. LIKELY POPS ARE EXPECTED FOR ALL ZONES SAT WITH NUMEROUS SHRA AND SCT TS. AS THE BROAD SFC LOW DEPARTS LATE SAT SLIGHTLY DRIER (2 INCH PWATS) LINGER ACROSS THE CWA FOR SUN. AGAIN INDICATED AN EARLY START TO PRECIP ACROSS OUR SUWANNEE VALLEY ZONES WITH PREVAILING SWLY FLOW...WITH A SEA BREEZE MERGER ACROSS OUR EASTERN FL ZONES AND GA ZONES BY EVENING. HPC 5-DAY RAINFALL OUTLOOK SUPPORTS A WIDESPREAD 2 INCHES ACROSS OUR CWA...WITH HIGHER AMOUNTS LIKELY IN MANY LOCALES. MOSTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WILL KEEP TEMPS IN CHECK WITH HIGHS IN THE LOW 90S TO MID 90S...AND MINS IN THE LOW/MID 70S...HOWEVER HIGH DEW PTS (NEAR 80 DEG TODAY NEAR DAB AND BUNNELL) WILL MAKE IT QUITE STEAMY. .LONG TERM...LOW LEVEL TROUGHING AND HIGH MOISTURE CONTENT WILL CONTINUE ABOVE NORMAL RAIN CHANCES MON...WITH SOME SLIGHTLY DRIER AIR POSSIBLY FILTERING IN FROM THE NNE TUE WHICH WOULD LIMIT POPS ACROSS OUR GA ZONES THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK WHILE KEEPING A GOOD CHANCE OF AFTN TSRA ACROSS OUR SOUTHERN FL ZONES. TEMPS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW/MID 90S TO 70S. && .AVIATION...INCREASING TROPICAL MOISTURE MAY BRING MVFR CIGS IN SHRA TONIGHT. WILL KEEP MID LEVEL CIGS FOR NOW AND ALLOW LATER SHIFTS TO TOSS IN MVFR OR IFR IF SHRA APPROACHES. HAVE VCSH FOR GNV THIS AFTN. OTHERWISE BULK OF RAIN WILL ARRIVE AFTER 15Z FRI AND HAVE NOT INCLUDED IN TAFS ATTM. && .MARINE...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION DUE TO SEAS IN OFFSHORE WATERS. EASTERLY SWELLS OF 3-5 FT WITH PERIODS OF 8-9 SECONDS CONTINUE. THE SWELLS ARE RESPONSIBLE FOR MODERATE RIP CURRENT RISK AT THE BEACHES. A TROPICAL WAVE WILL MOVE NORTH ACROSS THE WATERS TONIGHT AND WASH OUT FRIDAY AS A RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS SOUTH OF THE WATERS. LIGHT ESE FLOW TODAY VEERS TO S AND SW AND INCREASES TONIGHT AND INTO THE WEEKEND AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND FRONT SLOWLY SAGGING SOUTH INTO THE REGION. WINDS BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE FRONT WASHES OUT ACROSS THE WATERS. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS ARE FORECAST THROUGH THE PERIOD. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... AMG 73 94 75 92 / 20 70 40 70 SSI 77 89 78 91 / 20 50 30 50 JAX 74 91 75 92 / 20 70 40 60 SGJ 75 89 75 92 / 30 70 40 60 GNV 74 89 73 92 / 40 80 40 70 OCF 74 89 74 93 / 50 80 50 70 && .JAX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. GA...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$