AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
331 AM EDT SAT JUL 30 2011

.DISCUSSION...
SHOWERS ARE SCATTERED AND MOSTLY FAVORING THE ATLANTIC WATERS
ADJACENT TO THE MIDDLE AND LOWER KEYS...MOVING WESTWARD AROUND 15
KNOTS. OTHERWISE...IR SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER
THE BULK OF THE KEYS SERVICE AREA. WINDS REMAIN FRESH ACROSS THE
WATERS SURROUNDING THE KEYS AND MODERATE AT THE KEYS ISLAND SENSORS.
TEMPERATURES ARE IN THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AT THIS HOUR.

THE BROAD MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGING ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST WILL WEAKEN
AND SHIFT WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SURFACE HIGH
PRESSURE ALIGNED ACROSS NORTH/CENTRAL FLORIDA WILL STEADILY WEAKEN THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY. THE LATEST GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT THE LOW LEVEL WINDS
WILL FALL OFF AT A QUICKER PACE THAN THE PREVIOUS FEW RUNS HAVE
SUGGESTED. THE LATEST CUDJOE PROFILER IMAGES SUGGEST THIS MAY HAVE
ALREADY INITIATED...BUT THIS IS NOT AGREEING WELL WITH KBYX VWP. LATEST
ASCAT IMAGES SHOW FRESH BREEZES ARE STILL STRETCHED ACROSS THE
MAJORITY OF THE SERVICE AREA. MADE SOME MINOR DOWNWARD ADJUSTMENTS IN
THE WINDS FROM LATER TONIGHT INTO SUNDAY MORNING THOUGH AS THE
SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES CLOSER.

SHOWERS ARE EXPECTED TO REMAIN SCATTERED...ACCOMPANIED BY A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH THROUGH
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK IS EXPECTED TO SHIFT WESTWARD CLOSER TO
FLORIDA...MAINTAINING OUR CHANCE OF RAIN. WE WILL NEED TO KEEP AN EYE
ON THE EVOLUTION OF THE WAVE CURRENTLY ABOUT 1000 MILES EAST OF THE
WINDWARD ISLANDS LATER IN THE WEEK...AS NHC IS CARRYING A HIGH CHANCE
OF DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.

&&

.MARINE...
WILL HANG ON TO AN EXERCISE CAUTION HEADLINE FOR ALL MARINE ZONES
TODAY. WE WILL PROBABLY HAVE A SURGE AT LEAST FOR A FEW HOURS
TONIGHT...AND THEN MORE MODERATE BREEZES SHOULD SPREAD ACROSS THE
KEYS WATERS BY LATE SUNDAY. EXPECT SCATTERED SHOWERS AND A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH THE DURATION OF THIS FORECAST.

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR WILL PREVAIL A THE ISLAND TERMINALS THROUGH THE PERIOD...HOWEVER
SHOWERS IN THE AREA MAY PROVIDE BRIEF REDUCTIONS TO MVFR FROM TIME
TO TIME.  THE STRONGEST SHOWER ACTIVITY HAS THREATENED MARATHON IN
THE PAST FEW HOURS...BUT HAS MOSTLY DISSIPATED AND MOVED NORTH AT
THIS TIME. EASTERLY BREEZES WILL PERSIST THROUGH THE PERIOD AND
OCCASIONALLY GUST TO 20 KNOTS.

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$