AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
347 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.DISCUSSION...
DOPPLER RADAR SCANS TODAY HAVE SHOWN ISOLATED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. AT THE MOMENT...SHOWER COVERAGE IS
HIGHER OVER WESTERN PORTIONS OF THE SERVICE AREA. WINDS HAVE BACKED
OUT OF DUE EAST...AVERAGING 15-20MPH OVER LAND. SKIES HAVE BEEN
PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A TRADE-WIND TYPE FLOW REGIME IN PLACE. A DEEP
RIDGE REMAINS WELL NORTH OF THE FLORIDA KEYS...AND THIS PATTERN WILL
PERSIST FOR AT LEAST THE NEXT FEW DAYS. BY EARLY NEXT WEEK...THE
RIDGE SHOULD BREAK DOWN ENOUGH FOR SURFACE WINDS TO RELAX SOME. NO
OTHER MAJOR LARGE-SCALE WEATHER SYSTEMS ARE AFFECTING OR EXPECTED TO
AFFECT THE FLORIDA KEYS FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. NO MAJOR CHANGES WITH
THIS PACKAGE.
&&

.MARINE...
SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION AS WINDS AVERAGE 15-20 KNOTS.
AFTER DARK BREEZES MAY SURGE...REACHING NEAR 20 KNOTS IN PLACES.
WELL-DEVELOPED SEAS OF 4-6 FEET ARE LIKELY FROM THE REEF
SEAWARD...WITH A 2-3 FEET AVERAGE IN HAWK CHANNEL AND IN THE GULF OF
MEXICO INSIDE FIVE FATHOMS. BEYOND FIVE FATHOMS...SEAS WILL BUILD
QUICKLY TO 3-5 FEET. BAY AND NEARSHORE CONDITIONS WILL BE CHOPPY.
SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ISOLATED TO SCATTERED WITH ONLY A SLIGHT
CHANCE FOR A BRIEF THUNDERSTORM. WINDS PROBABLY WILL DIMINISH SOME
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE BREAKS DOWN TO OUR NORTH.
&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON ISLAND
TERMINALS THROUGH SATURDAY. FAST MOVING...ISOLATED SHOWERS MAY
PERIODICALLY APPROACH OR MOVE WESTWARD OVER EYW AND MTH.
HOWEVER...IMPACTS SHOULD BE BRIEF...LESS THAN 30 MINS IN
DURATION...AND WE WILL AMEND THE TAFS IF NECESSARY TO INDICATE
SUB-VFR CONDITIONS. MAINLY EAST WINDS NEAR 20 KNOTS WILL EXTEND FROM
JUST OFF THE SURFACE THROUGH AT LEAST 15000 FEET AT EYW AND MTH
THROUGH TONIGHT.
&&

.CLIMATE...
THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE KEY WEST INTERNATIONAL AIRPORT SINCE
APRIL 1ST HAS BEEN 82.8 DEGREES. THIS IS THE THIRD WARMEST MEAN
TEMPERATURE IN KEY WEST HISTORY FOR THE PERIOD FROM APRIL 1ST THROUGH
JULY 28TH. THE WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THIS 119-DAY
STRETCH AT KEY WEST OF 83.1 DEGREES OCCURRED IN 1967. TEMPERATURE
RECORDS AT KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1873.

THE AVERAGE TEMPERATURE AT THE FLORIDA KEYS MARATHON AIRPORT SINCE
APRIL 1ST HAS BEEN 84.0 DEGREES. THIS IS THE WARMEST MEAN
TEMPERATURE ON RECORD SINCE RECORDS HAVE BEEN KEPT IN THE MIDDLE
KEYS FOR THE PERIOD FROM APRIL 1ST THROUGH JULY 28TH. THE PRIOR
WARMEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE DURING THIS 119-DAY STRETCH AT MARATHON
OF 83.2 DEGREES OCCURRED IN 2008. TEMPERATURE RECORDS FOR THE MIDDLE
KEYS ONLY DATE BACK TO 1982.
&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST  84  92  84  92 / 30 30 30 30
MARATHON  84  94  84  94 / 30 30 30 30
&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$