AFDKEY

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR THE FLORIDA KEYS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KEY WEST FL
240 PM EDT SUN JUL 10 2011

.DISCUSSION...
.CURRENTLY...
KBYX DETECTS ISOLATED SHOWERS THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST AREA. SKIES
OVER THE ISLAND CHAIN ARE PARTLY CLOUDY. WINDS OVER LAND ARE EAST TO
SOUTHEAST AT 5 TO 10 MPH. C-MAN WINDS...ON AVERAGE...ARE EAST NEAR
10 KNOTS. TEMPERATURES ARE NEAR 90 DEGREES.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT)...
AN ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL EXTEND ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL
FLORIDA TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. A TROUGH OF LOW
PRESSURE NEAR CENTRAL CUBA WILL PROGRESS WESTWARD TONIGHT. AS THIS
TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES WESTWARD...THE LOW LEVELS OF THE
ATMOSPHERE SHOULD MOISTEN AND WINDS SHOULD INCREASE A BIT TONIGHT.
THIS WOULD BE CONDUCIVE FOR AN UPSWING IN CONVECTION DUE TO ENHANCED
LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY MONDAY MORNING. AS A
RESULT...POPS WILL BE KEPT ABOVE ALL NUMERICAL MODEL OUTPUT
STATISTICS OVERNIGHT AND MONDAY MORNING. THEREAFTER...GRADUAL DRYING
AND WARMING IN THE LOW LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE SHOULD COMMENCE
MONDAY AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH AT LEAST TUESDAY NIGHT. NO
MORE THAN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ARE NEEDED MONDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
TUESDAY NIGHT.

.LONG TERM (WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...
THE POSITION OF THE AFOREMENTIONED ATLANTIC RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE
SHOULD REMAIN RATHER CONSTANT WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY. UNTIL
ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE INCREASES AGAIN...WHICH MAY HAPPEN FRIDAY
NIGHT...SLIGHT CHANCE POPS SHOULD SUFFICE.

&&

.MARINE...
GENTLE EAST TO SOUTHEAST BREEZES WILL PREVAIL ON ALL KEYS COASTAL
WATERS TONIGHT. NO ADVISORIES OR CAUTIONARY HEADLINES EXPECTED
TONIGHT THROUGH AT LEAST FRIDAY.

&&

.AVIATION...
TONIGHT...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT THE KEY WEST AND MARATHON
TERMINALS. BRIEF MVFR/IFR CIGS AND/OR VIS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN ANY
ISOLATED SHOWER THAT MANAGES TO MOVE ACROSS THE TERMINALS. JUST SOME
SCATTERED CLOUDS WITH BASES AT OR ABOUT 2000 FEET...WITH EAST
SOUTHEAST WINDS AVERAGING ABOUT 110 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS EXPECTED TO
PREVAIL AT THE TERMINALS.

&&

.CLIMATE...
ON THIS DATE IN KEYS WEATHER HISTORY...IN 1965...2.27 INCHES OF RAIN
FELL IN KEY WEST. THIS SET THE DAILY RECORD FOR MAXIMUM RAINFALL
MEASURED IN KEY WEST ON JULY 10TH...A RECORD WHICH STILL STANDS 46
YEARS LATER. RAINFALL RECORDS IN KEY WEST DATE BACK TO 1871.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KEY WEST 82 88 82 89 / 20 30 20 20
MARATHON 81 91 82 91 / 20 30 20 20

&&

.KEY WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GM...NONE.

&&

$$