AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
731 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011

.UPDATE...UPDATED ZONES TO DROP POPS TO SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE EVENING. 00Z LCH SOUNDING IN AND PRECIPITABLE
WATER COMING IN AT A VERY RESPECTABLE 2.44 INCHES. WITH EXTENT OF
MOISTURE REMAINING IN PLACE AND POTENTIAL FOR MINOR SHORTWAVE ENERGY
DROPPING SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA IN FLOW ALOFT...WENT AHEAD
AND REINTRODUCED LOW END POPS FOR POST MIDNIGHT.

&&

MARCOTTE


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 649 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011/

DISCUSSION...
FOR 00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

AVIATION...
REGIONAL 88DS SHOW QUITE A BIT OF LIGHT RETURNS MOVING WWD ACROSS
SERN LA...APPROACHING THE ATCHAFALAYA BASIN. HOWEVER SFC OBS
INDICATE THAT MUCH OF THIS IS NOT REACHING GROUND...WHILE THE
RETURNS THEMSELVES ARE DIMINISHING IN COVERAGE WITH TIME.
THEREFORE HAVE NOT INCLUDED ANY MENTION OF PRECIP IN THE EARLY
PORTIONS OF THIS TAF PACKAGE. 16/00Z 4KM WRF IS SHOWING SHOWERS
BREAKING OUT AROUND VERMILION BAY PRIOR TO SUNRISE WHILE GFS SHOWS
CONVECTION BREAKING OUT ALL ALONG THE COAST BEFORE MOVING INLAND
AND NAM WAITS TILL LATER IN THE DAY AND INLAND TO DEVELOP PRECIP.
KINDA LIKE THE WRF FORECAST BASED ON ITS VERIFICATION LATELY SO
BROUGHT IN VCSH AND PROB30 MENTIONS AT KLFT/KARA SOONER THAN
REMAINDER OF THE SITES.

25

PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 338 PM CDT SAT JUL 16 2011/

SYNOPSIS...
A BROAD LOW IN THE GULF EASTERLIES REMAINS STATIONARY NEAR MOBILE
THIS AFTERNOON. A TROUGH SPOKES FROM THE LOW THROUGH SOUTHERN
LOUISIANA AND INTO SOUTHEAST TEXAS.

FURTHER-UP...A DOME OF HIGH PRESSURE NEAR JOPLIN RIDGES SOUTHWARD
TO THE UPPER GULF COAST. AN ASSOCIATED NORMAL DEFORMATION ZONE
(OR CYCLONIC SHEAR ZONE) EXTENDS THROUGH HOUSTON TEXAS TO
JACKSONVILLE FLORIDA.

DISCUSSION...
THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE AFOREMENTIONED DEFORMATION ZONE IS
PHASING-IN WITH THE LIFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE EASTERLY TROUGH.

NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE THE RESULT.

THE GFS DEPICTS THE STALLED BROAD LOW OPENING UP INTO AN EASTERLY
WAVE ON MONDAY...BEFORE TRAVELING WESTWARD ACROSS LOUISIANA AND
THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO.

CONSEQUENTLY...BELIEVE THAT THIS WET PATTERN WILL PERSIST THROUGH MONDAY.

OUTLOOK...
DRIER WEATHER IS EXPECTED BY MIDWEEK...AS THE TRAVELING EASTERLY
WAVE MOVES WESTWARD INTO TEXAS AND DAMPS OUT. THE BERMUDA HIGH
PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL RE-BUILD THROUGH THE GULF OF MEXICO IN WAKE
OF DEPARTED EASTERLY WAVE.

MARINE...
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER THE NEXT FEW
DAYS. FREQUENT LIGHTNING AND VISIBILITIES REDUCED TO BELOW 3 NM
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  76  90  75  89  75 /  20  60  40  60  40
KBPT  75  90  75  89  75 /  20  50  30  60  40
KAEX  74  93  73  91  74 /  20  60  40  60  10
KLFT  78  91  75  89  75 /  20  60  40  60  40

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$