AFDLCH

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LAKE CHARLES LA
629 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.DISCUSSION...
00Z TAF ISSUANCE.

&&

.AVIATION...
SHRA/TSRA OVER ARA RAPIDLY WEAKENING...WITH POSSIBLE MVFR CEILINGS
FOR THE NEXT HOUR. WITH LOTS OF RAIN AROUND...MAY HAVE INTERMITTENT
MVFR VSBY AT ARA/LFT TOWARDS SUNRISE. OTHER EVENTS...MARSH FIRES
ACROSS W CAMERON PARISH COUPLE WITH A SW WIND HAVE RESTRICTED VSBY
TO 4SM AT LCH THE LAST COUPLE OF HOURS...AND MAY DO SO THE NEXT 4
HOURS OR SO THIS EVENING. OTHERWISE...VFR EXPECTED.

DML

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 350 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011/

DISCUSSION...
SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE NRN GULF
PROVIDING AN ONSHORE LOW-LEVEL FLOW ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA.
MEANWHILE WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A MID/UPPER-LEVEL LOW JUST OFF
MARSH ISLAND PUSHING WWD AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE LOCATED
FROM THE DESERT SW ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS. LOCAL 88D IMAGERY SHOWS
WIDELY SCATTERED CONVECTION HAS DEVELOPED ALONG THE SEA
BREEZE...WITH ADDITIONAL CONVECTION POSSIBLE ALONG ASSOCIATED OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES. OTHERWISE MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES PREVAIL WITH TEMPS IN THE
90S.

NOT MANY CHANGES WERE MADE TO THE GRIDS/ZONES THIS AFTERNOON.
EXPECT ONGOING CONVECTION...WHICH AS STATED EARLIER WILL LIKELY
SPREAD INLAND THROUGH THE REST OF THE DAY...TO DISSIPATE SHORTLY
AFTER SUNSET WITH LOSS OF HEATING. A FEW SHOWERS/STORMS MAY
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AS THE LOW ALOFT CONTINUES PUSHING WWD OVER THE
COASTAL WATERS...AND SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY COULD MAKE IT ASHORE
OVER THE COASTAL ZONES. THEREAFTER EXPECT AT LEAST WIDELY
SCATTERED CONVECTION TO DEVELOP EACH AFTERNOON WITH HEATING/SEA
BREEZE/OUTFLOWS BEING PRIMARY LIFT MECHANISMS. POPS WILL BE A
LITTLE HIGHER TOMORROW AS THE AREA LIES ON THE ERN EDGE OF THE LOW
WHICH WILL USHER IN A LITTLE BETTER MOISTURE WHILE ALSO NUDGING
THE RIDGE A LITTLE FARTHER NWD. POPS CLIMB SLIGHTLY AGAIN DURING
THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK AS A WEAK WAVE IS PROGGED TO CROSS THE
REGION.

TEMPS WILL BE A BIG CONCERN EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE RIDGE
ESTABLISHES ITSELF ALOFT AND DRIVES AFTERNOON READINGS TOWARD THE
MID/UPPER 90S. MAXES ARE CURRENTLY FORECAST TO TOUCH TRIPLE-DIGITS
ACROSS THE EXTREME NRN ZONES ON TUESDAY. AFTER A SLIGHT COOLDOWN FOR
WEDNESDAY...READINGS BEGIN TO RISE AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK.

MARINE...
MAINLY LIGHT WINDS AND SLIGHT SEAS EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD
WITH HIGH PRESSURE IN CONTROL.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
KLCH  77  93  76  93  76 /  20  30  20  20  10
KBPT  76  93  76  94  77 /  20  30  20  20  10
KAEX  75  96  75  97  74 /  10  30  20  20  10
KLFT  76  93  76  94  76 /  20  30  20  20  10

&&

.LCH WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
LA...NONE.
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$