AFDMFL AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MIAMI FL 446 AM EDT TUE AUG 23 2011 ...SOUTH FLORIDA NEEDS TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR HURRICANE IRENE FOR LATE THIS WEEK... ...NEAR RECORD HIGHS EAST COAST BEACHES THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK... .DISCUSSION... HIGH PRESSURE LOCATED OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS WILL WEAKEN TODAY INTO TONIGHT...AS A STATIONARY FRONT OVER NORTH FLORIDA SLOWLY DISSIPATES. THIS WILL KEEP A EASTERLY WIND FLOW OVER THE CWA TODAY AND ALLOW FOR BOTH THE EAST AND WEST COAST SEA BREEZES TO DEVELOP AND MOVE INLAND...AS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ALONG THE SEA BREEZES. THEREFORE...THE HIGHEST POPS WILL BE OVER THE INTERIOR AREAS WITH LOW END CHANCE POPS OVER THE METRO AREAS. THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS STILL FORECASTING HURRICANE IRENE TO MOVE TO THE WEST NORTHWEST TODAY INTO WEDNESDAY BEFORE GOING MORE NORTHWEST ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE NORTHWEST BAHAMA ISLANDS. THIS WILL ALLOW FOR DRY AIR AHEAD OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE TO MOVE INTO SOUTH FLORIDA TONIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. SO HAVE LOWER THE POPS TO 20 PERCENT FOR THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS TO 30 PERCENT FOR THE WEST COAST AREAS. THE THUNDER THREAT HAS ALSO BE REMOVE FROM MOST OF THE CWA FOR WEDNESDAY...EXCEPT FOR THE WESTERN AREAS OF THE CWA WHERE THE WEST COAST SEA BREEZE WILL MEET THE EAST COAST SEA BREEZE. BUT THE THUNDER THREAT WILL BE SLIGHT AT BEST. ON THURSDAY...THE POPS WILL BE IN A BIG RANGE FROM 20 PERCENT ALONG THE METRO AREAS OF COLLIER COUNTY INCREASING TO 50 PERCENT ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS AND EVEN 60 POPS OVER THE ATLANTIC WATERS. THIS FORECAST AGAIN WILL DEPEND ON THE TRACK AND STRENGTH OF HURRICANE IRENE. SO RESIDENTS AND VISITORS OF SOUTH FLORIDA NEED TO CONTINUE TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECAST UPDATES FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THE LOCAL OFFICE ON HURRICANE IRENE. RAINFALL AMOUNTS WILL ALSO REMAIN LOW OVER SOUTH FLORIDA AS HURRICANE IRENE PASSED TO THE EAST OF THE AREA...DUE TO THE AREA BEING ON THE DRY SIDE OF THE SYSTEM. AT THIS TIME...TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS FROM THIS EVENT WILL BE LESS THAN TENTH OF AN INCH OVER THE WEST COAST METRO AREAS TO AROUND 1 INCH OVER THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS. .EXTENDED FORECAST... THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER IS FORECASTING HURRICANE IRENE TO CONTINUE TO MOVE NORTH INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC WATERS THIS WEEKEND. THIS WILL CAUSE THE STEERING FLOW TO BE SOUTHWEST OVER SOUTH FLORIDA...AND FOCUS THE HIGHEST POPS OVER THE EASTERN AREAS OF THE CWA THIS WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AT THE SAME TIME...HIGHS ALONG THE EAST COAST METRO AREAS WILL BE IN THE MID 90S WHICH ARE NEAR THE RECORD HIGHS FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR. && .MARINE... EASTERLY WINDS BELOW 15 KTS SHOULD CONTINUE WITH SEAS BELOW 4 FT AT LEAST THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON. SURFACE WINDS SHOULD BEGIN TO INCREASE QUICKLY AND SEAS WILL BECOME ROUGH IN RESPONSE TO THE APPROACH OF IRENE BY LATE AFTERNOON WEDNESDAY WITH TROPICAL STORM OR EVEN HURRICANE CONDITIONS POSSIBLE ACROSS THE ATLANTIC WATERS BY THURSDAY. AGAIN...THIS IS BASED ON THE 3-DAY FORECAST TRACK ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER. LARGE UNCERTAINTY IS ASSOCIATED WITH A FORECAST THIS FAR INTO THE FUTURE AND ANY CHANGE IN MOVEMENT OR SPEED OF IRENE COULD RESULT IN A DIFFERENT SCENARIO. MARINERS AND BOATER ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE TO MONITOR IRENE AND KEEP ABREAST OF THE LATEST UPDATES ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER AND THIS OFFICE. && .FIRE WEATHER... THE RELATIVE HUMIDITIES OVER SOUTH FLORIDA WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE THE 35 PERCENT CRITICAL VALUE THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK. SO NO PROBLEMS ARE EXPECTED WITH THE FIRE WEATHER OVER SOUTH FLORIDA THE THE END OF THE WEEK. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 91 78 90 80 / 40 20 20 30 FORT LAUDERDALE 91 81 90 82 / 30 20 10 30 MIAMI 92 80 91 81 / 40 20 20 30 NAPLES 93 76 94 78 / 40 30 30 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$