AFDMHX Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC 1003 AM EST Tue Dec 3 2024 .SYNOPSIS... Cold, dry high pressure will remain in control through Wednesday. Below normal temperatures will continue with near record lows possible tonight into Wednesday morning. A strong front will move through Thursday with high pressure building back over the area Friday into the weekend. && .NEAR TERM /REST OF TODAY/... As of 10 AM Tue... Latest obs and satellite imagery shows previously mentioned weak surface low that brought a few flurries to our southern counties earlier this morning currently offshore about 100 miles south of Wilmington, NC and moving off to the east. As this low continues off to the east any leftover cloud cover will quickly scatter out with dry air filtering into ENC this morning. Otherwise the forecast remains on track today as we struggle to get out of the low 40s. Mid level shortwave and associated surface low push offshore this morning while broad upper troughing remains in place across the Eastern Seaboard. This is forecast to bring yet another reinforcing shot of CAA and steady NW`rly winds to the region. Any leftover cloud cover should push well offshore by midday resulting in clear but cold temps on Tuesday. Expect highs to once again struggle to get out of the low to mid 40s on Tue which will once again be well below normal for this time of year. && .SHORT TERM /TONIGHT/... As of 245 AM Tuesday...Clear skies and calm winds tonight will allow temps to crater, likely resulting in the coldest night yet this season. Temps in the mid to upper teens are likely for much of mainland NC, a bit "warmer" to low 30s for beaches. The exception is OBX where a light wind is forecast to persist through the night preventing true decoupling. This keeps OBX lows in the low to mid 30s tonight. Fortunately with light to calm winds in the way of a truly impactful wind chill, there is no need for a cold weather advisory unless if the forecast temps trend substantially lower. It will still be a very chilly (and potentially record breaking) night for the area so dress warm! && .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 3 AM Tue...Long term outlook for eastern NC continues to favor below average temperatures and primarily dry conditions. A strong cold front will cross the region Thursday. Strong high pressure and another round of cold temperatures will build in late week into the weekend. Temps will warm early next week, with better chances for precip. A stronger shortwave is forecast to dive out of central Canada, resulting in cyclogenesis over the Great Lakes and New England which will drag another strong cold front across the eastern CONUS...and through eastern NC Thursday. After a cold start Wed, temps will warm into the upper 40s to low 50s. Ahead of the boundary, breezy conditions are likely as 35-45 kt 850 mb winds are mixed towards the surface Wed night into Thu. SW-WSW winds may gust 40-45 mph along the Outer Banks. This could result in minor soundside water level rises for the Outer Banks. Much more mild temps are expected with highs climbing to 55-60 degrees Thu, though this respite will not last long. Strong high pressure will build back over the area Friday into the weekend, resulting in dry weather and below normal temps. Highs in the 40s Fri and Sat, warming into the 50s Sun and around 60 on Mon. Sat morning looks to be the coldest with temps likely falling into the teens inland and low 30s for the Outer Banks. Another cold front is forecast to approach the area early next week, though still some uncertainty and timing differences in the guidance. Will cap pops at low chance for now. Temps expected to warm to near or slightly above normal Mon and Tue. && .AVIATION /15Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... SHORT TERM /through tonight/... As of 630 AM Tuesday...VFR conditions continue over ENC through the period. Through the rest of the morning a mid level shortwave sweeps across ENC. While not expecting any precip of significance across the area, ceilings of 5-8 kft have been observed along an area of isentropic lift. May see a few flurries but no restrictions to vsbys and certainly no flying issues. Best chance for a flake over the next couple hours would be KOAJ and KISO. Cloud deck then quickly scours out this morning as the shortwave pushes offshore with clear skies once again forecast for today. Winds increase further after daybreak today, closer to 5-10 kts with gusts up near 15kts at times remaining from the NW. Winds quickly become calm after sunset through the night, but with the continued dry air advection no fog is expected. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Prolonged period of VFR conditions expected through the period, as cold and dry high pressure remains in control. Airmass will likely be too dry to support fog, although some reduced visibilities due to steam fog are possible for terminals near water. Another strong cold front crosses the terminals Thursday with the potential for wind gusts 20-25 kt. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /through Tuesday night/... As of 300 AM Tuesday...A strong mid level shortwave will push offshore this morning bringing a renewed N`rly surge of winds. As this occurs winds will increase closer to 15-20 kts with gusts up to 25 kts across most of our waters. As a result have SCA`s across all our coastal waters, the Pamlico Sound, and the Croatan and Roanoke Sounds where the most confidence in seeing frequent gusts to 25 kts is. SCA`s start at 10 AM on Tuesday and persist through the rest of the period. Elsewhere a few gusts up near 25 kts will be possible mainly along the far eastern Albemarle Sound but gusts wont be frequent enough to warrant additional SCA`s elsewhere. Seas will remain at 3-5 ft through Tue morning before increasing slightly to 4-6 ft Tuesday afternoon in response to the increased winds. Once we get to Tuesday night, SCA`s will have dropped for inland sounds and all coastal waters except for those off Hatteras Island. 6 footers will still be possible 15-20 nm offshore of Hatteras Island into the early morning hours Wednesday, but should drop below 6 feet before daybreak Wednesday. LONG TERM /Wednesday through Saturday/... As of 3 AM Tue...Strong winds and dangerous seas expected to develop Wednesday night and Thursday. Gale Watches have been issued for the coastal waters and the Pamlico Sound Wednesday night into Thursday evening, with the potential for 35-40 kt gusts. SCAs will likely eventually be needed for the remaining waters. NW winds 5-15 kt to start off Wed, with winds grad backing becoming SW, then increasing to 15-20 kt by early evening. SW-WSW winds will peak at 20-30 kt across the inland rivers and northern sounds and 25-35 kt across the coastal waters and Pamlico Sound...with seas building to 6-12 ft (highest near the Gulf Stream). Slowly improving conditions Thursday night. Strong high pressure will build over the waters Fri into the weekend. Breezy NNW winds 15-25 kt Fri with seas grad subsiding to 3-6 ft. Better conditions expected across the waters Sat, NW-W winds 10-15 kt and seas 2-4 ft. && .TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING... As of 3 AM Tue...Strong SW-WSW winds will develop Wednesday night and Thursday ahead of a cold front. This may result in minor water level rises (1-2 ft agl) for soundside Outer Banks. At this time the greatest threat looks to be for areas from Duck to Buxton (including Roanoke Island) early Thu morning through late afternoon. && .CLIMATE... Record Low temperatures for 12/04 (Wednesday) LOCATION TEMP/YEAR New Bern 22/1966 (KEWN ASOS) Cape Hatteras 27/1979 (KHSE ASOS) Greenville 18/1966 (COOP - Not KPGV AWOS) Morehead City 23/1989 (COOP - Not KMRH ASOS) Kinston 19/1966 (COOP - Not KISO AWOS) Jacksonville 22/1989 (NCA ASOS) && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...None. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory until midnight EST tonight for AMZ135-150- 156-158. Gale Watch from Wednesday evening through Thursday evening for AMZ135-150-152-154-156-158. Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EST Wednesday for AMZ152-154. Small Craft Advisory until 10 PM EST this evening for AMZ231. && $$