AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 333 PM EDT THU MAY 12 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AND TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT FLOW ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO BRIEFLY BECOME PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE NEARLY STATIONARY ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE SE. MAIN AFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE THE NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DIRECTION EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHOULD GIVE TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCING HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS. NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S STILL ON TRACK. PATCHES OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE FLOW WEAKENING...EXPECT SMOKE PARTICULATE CONCENTRATIONS SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE FIRE TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH. AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE FIRE TOWARD THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 PM FRIDAY/... A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVERRIDING THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DROP SE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE A FEW LATE SHOWERS WELL INLAND. CLOUDS AND A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PAINS BAY FIRE WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SHUD LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY OVER THE SOUND COUNTIES OVRNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THUR...LONG TERM PATTERN WILL BE DOMINATED BY HIGHLY AMPLIFIED SYNOPTIC REGIME ACROSS CONUS...WITH BLOCKING PATTERN CONTINUING THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AND POSSIBLY DEVELOPING BEYOND THIS TIME FRAME. BOTH DETERMINISTIC AND ENSEMBLE MEANS FROM NCEP/ECMWF INDICATE DEEP LONGWAVE TROUGH ACROSS THE EASTERN CONUS WITH BUILDING RIDGE ACROSS THE PLAIN STATES. THIS WILL SPELL A PROLONGED PERIOD OF UNSETTLED WEATHER ACROSS E NC. SEVERAL SHORTWAVES EMBEDDED IN MEAN SW FLOW WILL BRINGS SEVERAL BOUTS OF SHOWERS/STORMS. FIRST WAVE WILL AFFECT THE AREA ON SAT...AND INC POPS TO LIKELY AS LARGE SCALE LIFT COMBINED WITH A SIG INCREASE IN BNDRY LAYER MOISTURE MOVES INTO E NC. MIXING RATIOS WILL INC TO NEARLY 14 G/KG ON SAT...AND PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN SHOWERS WILL BE POSSIBLE. WIDESPREAD SEVERE POTENTIAL IS MINIMAL AS VERY LITTLE IN THE WAY OF SHEAR PRESENT...THOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES WITH COLD AIR ALOFT WILL YIELD POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE HAIL. RAIN AND TSTORM CHANCES LINGER THROUGH SUN AS UPPER LOW SWINGS THROUGH WITH WEAK SFC REFLECTION ACROSS WRN NC/VA. BRIEF REPRIEVE MAY OCCUR MON BEFORE ANOTHER SHORTWAVE CARVES OUT ACROSS THE DEEP SOUTH AND MOVES UP THE EAST COAST ON MON EVE OR TUE. TIMING OF THIS FEATURE STILL A BIT UNCERTAIN...SO OPTED TO RAISE POPS ONLY TO HIGH CHANCE. WET PATTERN MAY CONTINUE INTO MID WEEK AND BEYOND SHOULD REX BLOCK PATTERN DEVELOP...AS ECMWF HINTING AT A LARGE RIDGE DEVELOPING ACROSS THE GREAT LAKES WHICH WOULD KEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE SOUTH FROM BUDGING. && .AVIATION /20Z THURSDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ONLY MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TAF LOCATIONS DUE TO SMOKE OR FOG EARLY THIS MORN BUT EXPECT AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS SHUD BEGIN TO SEE MORE MVFR VSBYS COMING IN TOWARD SUNRISE. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE/HAZE MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE UNTIL BETTER MIXING LEADS TO VSBY IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SHUD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. SMOKE MAY AGAIN REDUCE VSBYS LATE TONIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH SHUD KEEP THE HEAVIER SMOKE AWAY FROM TERMINALS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THUR...SHOWERS/STORMS WILL BE LIKELY ON SAT AND POTENTIALLY INTO SUN AS WELL...AS LARGE TROUGH BECOMES STATIONARY ACROSS THE EAST. PLENTIFUL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE WILL PRODUCE PERIODS OF MVFR CIGS AND BR. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAIN ARE ALSO POSSIBLE. WET PATTERN CONTINUES INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRES WILL NOT MOVE DUE TO LARGE BLOCKING PATTERN. WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER NOT LIKELY... THOUGH SEVERE HAIL CERTAINLY A POSSIBILITY AS COLD TEMPS ALOFT WILL SUPPORT THE THREAT. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLANTIC LOW MOVING SE AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. THE SWELL FROM THE ATLANTIC STORM HAS SLOWLY SUBSIDED FROM 8-10 FT YESTERDAY TO AROUND 7 FT THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS SWELL TO MAINTAIN IT`S CURRENT MAGNITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 330 PM THUR...SOUTHWEST FLOW DEVELOPS AS DEEP LOW PRES TROUGH APPROACHES AND THEN STALLS ACROSS THE INTERIOR EASTERN CONUS. THIS WILL PRODUCE LONG FETCH SW FLOW WITH SCA CONDITIONS CONTINUING ACROSS THE OUTER WATERS. WINDS MAY GUST CLOSE TO GALE FORCE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE CENTRAL WATERS ON SAT AS GRADIENT TIGHTENS. PERIODS OF RAIN AND TSTORMS WILL BE A GOOD BET FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS THE LOW REMAINS JUST INLAND. MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH SOME OF THE STORMS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156. && $$ SYNOPSIS...JME