AFDMHX AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEWPORT/MOREHEAD CITY NC 1023 AM EDT THU MAY 12 2011 .SYNOPSIS... HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE MID ATLANTIC STATES WILL RIDGE SOUTH OVER THE REGION THROUGH FRIDAY. A WARM FRONT WILL PUSH INTO THE AREA SATURDAY AND BECOME STATIONARY THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK AS LOW PRESSURE LINGERS TO THE SOUTHWEST. && .NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 PM THIS EVENING/... AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NC. DESPITE AMPLE MOISTURE...THE ATMOSPHERE WILL REMAIN CAPPED AND TOO STABLE FOR DEEP CONVECTION. THERE ARE SIGNS THAT FLOW ALOFT IS BEGINNING TO BRIEFLY BECOME PROGRESSIVE AS THE UPPER RIDGE AXIS HAS SHIFTED EASTWARD. THIS HAS ALLOWED THE NEARLY STATIONARY ATLANTIC LOW TO MOVE SE. MAIN AFFECT ACROSS EASTERN NC FROM THESE DEVELOPMENTS WILL BE THE NOTICEABLE DECREASE IN WIND SPEEDS THIS AFTERNOON WITH THE DIRECTION EVENTUALLY BECOMING LIGHT SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT. CONSIDERABLE MID CLOUDS CURRENTLY COVER MUCH OF THE REGION WEST OF HIGHWAY 17 AND ARE EXPECTED TO PERSIST FOR MUCH OF THE AFTERNOON. FURTHER EAST SKIES WILL MOSTLY CLEAR BUT SHOULD GIVE TO PARTLY CLOUDY CONDITIONS WITH DIURNAL HEATING PRODUCING HIGH BASED CUMULUS CLOUDS. NO CHANGES TO THE HIGH TEMPERATURE FORECAST WITH HIGHS IN THE MIDDLE 70S STILL ON TRACK. PATCHES OF SMOKE FROM THE WILDFIRE WILL LINGER THIS AFTERNOON BUT WITH THE FLOW WEAKENING...EXPECT SMOKE PARTICULATE CONCENTRATIONS SOUTH OF THE IMMEDIATE FIRE TO BEGIN TO DIMINISH. AS THE FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY THE AREA OF MAIN CONCERN WILL SHIFT NORTH OF THE FIRE TOWARD THE ALBEMARLE SOUND REGION. && .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... A PIECE OF WEAK SHORT WAVE ENERGY OVERRIDING THE RIDGE AXIS TO THE WEST WILL DROP SE OVER THE AREA LATE TONIGHT. CLOUDS WILL THICKEN AND LOWER OVERNIGHT AND MAY BE ENOUGH FORCING TO GENERATE A FEW LATE SHOWERS WELL INLAND. CLOUDS AND A WEAK RETURN FLOW WILL HOLD TEMPS UP IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S MOST AREAS. LOW LEVEL FLOW OVER THE PAINS BAY FIRE WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT TONIGHT. THIS SHUD LEAD TO POOR VISIBILITY OVER THE SOUND COUNTIES OVRNIGHT. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... AS OF 255 AM THURSDAY...VERY UNSETTLED PATTERN ON TAP FOR FRIDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. UPPER LEVEL TROUGH WILL DIG SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARDS THE REGION ON FRIDAY WITH LARGE OCEANIC LOW FINALLY PUSHING EAST FARTHER OUT TO SEA. SOUTHERLY RETURN FLOW WILL BRING WARM MOIST AIR INTO THE CAROLINAS FRIDAY WITH A WEAK SHORTWAVE ROUNDING THE BASE OF THE LARGE UPPER TROUGH...THUS WILL MAINTAIN SLIGHT CHANCE POPS/THUNDER FOR WESTERN ZONES INCREASING TO CHANCE POPS/THUNDER FROM WEST TO EAST FOR ALL ZONES BY FRIDAY NIGHT. MODEL UNCERTAINTY INCREASES FOR SATURDAY...AS THE GFS HOLDS THE UPPER CLOSED LOW BACK ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY WHILE THE ECMWF PUSHES AN INITIAL UPPER LEVEL LOW THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY AREA. MODELS DIFFERENCES CONTINUE SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. GFS SUGGEST ANOTHER CLOSED UPPER LOW APPROACHING FROM THE SOUTHWEST MONDAY NIGHT WHILE THE ECMWF KEEPS THE UPPER LOW CLOSED BUT WELL NORTHWEST OF THE REGION...NEAR THE SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES. MAIN DRIVER IN PRECIP THROUGH THE WEEKEND WILL BE A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS...THEREFORE ONLY MINOR TWEAKS TO PREVIOUS FORECAST POPS/WX GIVEN UNCERTAINTY. EXPECT TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS WITH HIGHS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOW 80S ACROSS THE COASTAL PLAIN AND LOW TO MID 70S FOR THE OUTER BANKS. MINS WILL RANGE IN THE LOW TO MID 60S. && .AVIATION /14Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... ONLY MINOR VSBY RESTRICTIONS AT TAF LOCATIONS DUE TO SMOKE OR FOG EARLY THIS MORN BUT EXPECT AS LOW LEVEL INVERSION STRENGTHENS SHUD BEGIN TO SEE MORE MVFR VSBYS COMING IN TOWARD SUNRISE. MVFR VSBYS DUE TO SMOKE/HAZE MAY LINGER FOR A FEW HOURS AFTER SUNRISE UNTIL BETTER MIXING LEADS TO VSBY IMPROVEMENT BY LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS THRU THE TAF PERIOD. LOWERING CIGS EXPECTED OVERNIGHT BUT SHUD GENERALLY REMAIN ABOVE 3K FT. SMOKE MAY AGAIN REDUCE VSBYS LATE TONIGHT BUT LOW LEVEL FLOW STARTING TO TURN MORE SOUTHERLY WHICH SHUD KEEP THE HEAVIER SMOKE AWAY FROM TERMINALS. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/... AS OF 300 AM THURSDAY...MAINLY VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED FRIDAY AS SURFACE RIDGE PUSHES OFFSHORE. EXPECT MVFR AND POSSIBLY IFR IN REDUCED CEILINGS AND VISIBILITIES DUE TO SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK TROUGHS CROSS THE REGION. && .MARINE... SHORT TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... AS OF 1015 AM THURSDAY...ALL OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE IS INDICATING THAT WIND SPEEDS WILL DIMINISH RAPIDLY AFTER 18Z AS THE GRADIENT WEAKENS IN RESPONSE TO THE ATLANTIC LOW MOVING SE AND THE SURFACE HIGH BUILDING OVER THE WATERS. THE SWELL FROM THE ATLANTIC STORM HAS SLOWLY SUBSIDED FROM 8-10 FT YESTERDAY TO AROUND 7 FT THIS MORNING. EXPECTING THIS SWELL TO MAINTAIN IT`S CURRENT MAGNITUDE THROUGH TONIGHT. THE LONG PERIOD SWELL WILL PRODUCE DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS ESPECIALLY NORTH OF CAPE LOOKOUT. LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... AS OF 310 AM THURSDAY...LONG PERIOD SWELL FROM THE LARGE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WELL EAST OF THE MID-ATLANTIC STATES WILL CONTINUE TO IMPACT MARINE CONDITIONS FRIDAY. NO CHANGES NEEDED FOR CURRENT SCA HEADLINES AT THIS TIME. WITH SURFACE RIDGE PUSHING OFFSHORE FRIDAY AND UPPER LEVEL TROUGH APPROACHING FROM THE WEST FRIDAY NIGHT...SURFACE WINDS WILL VEER SOUTHEASTERLY AND INCREASE TO 10 TO 15 KNOTS BY FRIDAY NIGHT. WINDS WILL VEER TO SOUTH ON SATURDAY THEN SOUTHWEST ON SUNDAY AND INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 FOR SOUTHERN COASTAL WATERS. EXPECT SMALL CRAFT TO BE HOISTED FOR SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK UNDER PERSISTENT SOUTHERLY FLOW WITH SEAS IN THE 5 TO 7 FT RANGE FOR THE SOUTHERN AND CENTRAL WATERS. UNFAVORABLE BOATING CONDITIONS ARE EXPECT TO CONTINUE ON MONDAY AND TUESDAY AS A SERIES OF WEAK SHORTWAVE TROUGHS CROSS THE WATERS. SWAN AND WAVEWATCH III WERE IN DECENT AGREEMENT THROUGH THE MEDIUM AND EXTENDED PERIODS. && .MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... NC...NONE. MARINE...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT SUNDAY FOR AMZ150-152-154. SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 2 AM EDT FRIDAY FOR AMZ156. && $$ SYNOPSIS...BTC