AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
955 AM EDT MON AUG 8 2011


.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT...SFC/RAOB/PROFILER DATA ALL SHOW THE DEEP LAYER ATLC HIGH
PRES RIDGE ANCHORED ACROSS THE FL STRAITS WITH FAIRLY STOUT WSW TO
SW FLOW IN PLACE ACROSS CTRL FL. WARM/HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE WITH
NOCTURNAL GOMEX SHOWERS COVERING WRN FL...AND A FEW OF THESE HAVE
BEEN SNEAKING INTO LAKE COUNTY AS THEY WEAKEN.

LOCAL PWAT VALUES HAVE COME UP TO AOA 2.0"...WHICH PORTENDS A VERY
ACTIVE WCSB WITH SCT-M,RS SHOWERS LIKELY TO BREAK OUT AHEAD OF IT
FROM LATE MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON. PROSPECTS FOR ECSB MORE DUBIOUS
BUT COULD SEE A LATE DAY BOUNDARY PINNED RIGHT AT THE COAST SIMILAR
TO WHAT OCCURRED SUNDAY. AIR MASS REMAINS MOIST/UNSTABLE ENOUGH TO
WHERE REDEVELOPMENT WILL OCCUR BEHIND THE INITIAL LATE MORNING/EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON SURGE OF PRECIP MOVING W-E ACROSS THE PENINSULA.
POPS LOOK FINE WITH HIGHEST NUMBERS NORTH/...DOWNSTREAM OF ONGOING
ACTIVITY.

TEMPS M-U90S AREAWIDE WITH HEAT INDICES TOPPING OUT AROUND 105-106F
ACROSS JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE CWA.

&&

.AVIATION...ISOLD SHRA/TSRA COVERAGE THIS MORNING...THEN BECOMING
SCT-NUMEROUS THIS AFTERNOON. WSW FLOW THROUGH LOWER LEVELS EXPECTED
TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO INHIBIT EAST COAST SEA BREEZE FROM PUSHING
WEST OF DAB-MLB-VRB.

&&

.MARINE...STEADY WESTERLY OFFSHORE FLOW TODAY WITH SHORT WIND WAVE
PERIODS AROUND 4 SEC AND A SMALL AND SLOWLY DECLINING LONG PERIOD
SWELL. SEAS 2 FT NEAR SHORE UP TO 3-4 FT WELL OFFSHORE. MAIN CONCERN
TO BOATERS WILL BE THUNDERSTORMS MOVING OFFSHORE FROM THE MAINLAND
THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.

&&

$$