AFDMLB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL
925 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011

.DISCUSSION...

...WET WEATHER CONTINUES TONIGHT...
...CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND...

.UPDATE...EVENING CENTRAL FL SOUNDINGS TELL THE WET STORY FOR THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES BETWEEN 2.4-2.5
INCHES AND INCREASING SOUTHERLY LOW LVL FLOW. UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO
SPIN S OF LA SETTING UP DEEP FEED OF TROPICAL MOISTURE OVER THE
STATE WITH AN AREA OF UPPER DIFFLUENCE ALOFT ALSO ENHANCING
CONTINUED SHOWER CHANCES. WILL LIMIT THUNDER CHANCES TO THE MORE
UNSTABLE ATLC WATERS WITH THE DEEP TROPICAL AIRMASS IN PLACE FOR THE
OVERNIGHT AND KEEP LIKELY SHOWER CHANCES IN THE 60-70 PCT RANGE.
LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS MAY OCCUR OVERNIGHT BUT SHOULD BE
ISOLATED IN NATURE WITH THE STRENGTHENING LOW LEVEL SOUTHERLY FLOW
TO AROUND 15 KNOTS INCREASING SHOWER MOVEMENT. THE LOW LEVEL SURFACE
TROUGH CONTINUES TO MOVE NORTHWARD INTO THE NRN FORECAST AREA THIS
EVENING WITH LOWS MAINLY IN THE MID 70S.

&&

.AVIATION...INTERIOR TERMINALS WILL SEE MVFR SHOWERS...WITH LVL IFR
SHRA WITH OCNL CIGS BLO 1KFT AND VSBYS BLO 3 MILES IN BRIEF HEAVY
SHRA THROUGH THE OVERNIGHT HOURS. EXPECT KMLB/KVRB TO SEE SCT SHRA
OVERNIGHT WITH COVERAGE LESS THAN INTERIOR SECTIONS. TROPICAL
MOISTURE WILL KEEP HIGHER THAN NORMAL SHRA/TSRA CHCS FOR TERMINALS
ON FRI WITH HIGHEST SHRA/TSRA CHCS BTWN 16Z-22Z.

&&

.MARINE...SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE WATERS TO NEAR
15 KNOTS OVERNIGHT WITH SEAS TO 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. SHOWERS WILL BE
LIKELY WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
AM...NONE.
&&

$$