AFDMLB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MELBOURNE FL 224 PM EDT THU JUL 7 2011 .DISCUSSION... ...CONTINUED HIGHER THAN NORMAL RAIN CHANCES INTO THE WEEKEND... CURRENT-TONIGHT...DEEP ABUNDANT MOISTURE LOCATED OVER THE PENINSULA THIS AFTERNOON BEHIND AN INVERTED TROUGH TRAVELING NORTH-NORTHWEST OVER THE AREA. NUMEROUS SHOWERS AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS STREAM NORTHWARD ACROSS EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA IN ASSOCIATION WITH THIS FEATURE. SOME LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL LIKELY INTO THIS EVENING AND POSSIBLY CONTINUING ALONG THE COAST OVERNIGHT WITH CELLS TRAINING OVER THE SAME AREAS. WILL INITIATE A PRE-FIRST PERIOD TO THE EVENING ZONES KEEPING NUMEROUS SHOWERS RUNNING IN THE FORECAST INTO THIS EVENING...AND PERHAPS LONGER ALONG THE EAST COAST. ISOLATED TO SCATTERED LIGHTNING STORMS WILL ALSO BE AROUND THROUGH THIS EVENING. COVERAGE WILL GO DOWN A BIT OVERNIGHT...THOUGH SOME COASTAL LOCALES WILL LIKELY REALIZE HIGHER COVERAGE AT TIMES OVERNIGHT. WITH SUCH DEEP TROPICAL MOISTURE ACROSS THE AREA FLOODING OF LOW LYING AREAS IS LIKELY...ESPECIALLY WHERE CELLS TRAIN OVER THE SAME PLACES. CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN SULTRY OVERNIGHT AND LOWS WILL REMAIN MILD IN THE 70S. FRI-SAT...THE UPPER RIDGING OVER THE SOUTHWEST ATLC WILL STRENGTHEN WITH INCREASING HEIGHTS WORKING BACK WESTWARD ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. DEEP PWAT VALUES OVER THE AREA WILL GRADUALLY MOVE NORTHWARD OUT OF THE AREA FRI NIGHT BUT WILL BE REINFORCED SAT-SAT NIGHT AS A NEW SURGE OF DEEP LAYER MOISTURE MOVES UP FROM THE SOUTH INTO EAST CENTRAL FLORIDA. MID-LEVEL IMPULSES WILL AID TO KEEP CONTINUED HIGH POP VALUES ON FRI (60 TO 70 PERCENT) AND INTO FRI EVENING (30 TO 40 PERCENT). IT APPEARS LATE FRI EVENING & OVERNIGHT CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION WILL DIMINISH OVER LAND WITH GRADUAL LESSENING CHANCES ALSO ALONG THE IMMEDIATE COAST. CONDITIONS SHOULD REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED ABOVE NORMAL POPS (50 TO 60 PERCENT) AGAIN ON SAT BUT DIMINISHING SAT OVERNIGHT...EXCEPT SOME LOWER CHANCES ALONG THE COAST. CLOUDS AND PRECIPITATION SHOULD KEEP MAX TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 80S TO AROUND 90 DEGREES AREAWIDE FRI. THERE MAY BE SOME ADDITIONAL BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS ON SAT AS MAV GUIDANCE SUGGESTS HIGHS IN THE LOWER 90S AREAWIDE WITH A FEW MIDDLE 90S NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. WITH A CONTINUED SULTRY AIR MASS IF THESE HIGHS REALIZE ON SAT SUSPECT HEAT INDICES WILL BE IN THE LOW 100S. HUMID CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE EACH NIGHT WITH OVERNIGHT MINS REMAINING IN THE 70S. SUN-WED...(PREVIOUS DISCUSSION)...WHILE THE BROAD TROFFING PATTERN OVER THE ERN SEABOARD IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN...ALLOWING A LARGE CONTINENTAL RIDGE OVER THE CENTRAL/SRN PLAINS TO DRIFT ACRS THE MS RIVER VALLEY AND INTO THE DEEP SOUTH. THIS MOTION WILL DRAW THE ATLC RIDGE BACK INTO THE CENTRAL PENINSULA. HOWEVER...BOTH GFS/ECMWF MODELS NOW MAINTAIN A WEAK SPOT LOW OVER THE REGION INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK THAT WOULD INTERFERE WITH THE MERGER BTWN THE ATLC RIDGE AND CONTINENTAL RIDGE. THIS WOULD PREVENT A CLEAN TRANSITION FROM THE "RIDGE-SOUTH" TO "RIDGE NORTH" PATTERN WHILE SIMULTANEOUSLY PROVIDING A POOL FOR ANY RESIDUAL MOISTURE TO COLLECT. MEX MOS GUIDANCE HAS RESPONDED BY INCREASING POPS BTWN 5-15PCT ACRS THE BOARD INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. AS SUCH...WILL KEEP LIKELY POPS IN OVER THE NRN COUNTIES ON SUN...SCT ELSEWHERE AS DRY AIR NE OF THE BAHAMAS SHOULD BEGIN TO PUSH INTO S FL AS THE RIDGE BUILDS NORTH. SCT DIURNAL POPS WILL CONTINUE INTO THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE TEMPERATURE PATTERN AS SCT/NMRS SHRAS/TSRAS AND HIGH CLOUD COVER KEEP MAX TEMPS NEAR AVG (U80S/L90S)...WHILE THAT SAME HIGH CLOUD COVER AND HIGH SFC DEWPOINTS KEEP MIN TEMPS ABV AVG (M/U70S). && .AVIATION...WDSPRD MVFR TO IFR VSBYS AND MVFR CIGS IN NMRS SHRA AND ISOLD TO SCT TS. ACTIVITY MAY DECREASE OVERNIGHT...THOUGH GREATEST CHANCES TO REMAIN ALONG THE EAST COAST. HEAVY SHOWER/ISOLD-SCT LIGHTNING STORMS FORECAST AGAIN SAT WITH FREQUENT CLOUD TO GROUND LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS IN HEAVIEST ACTIVITY. && .MARINE...TONIGHT-SAT NIGHT...SE-S FLOW 10-15 KTS AWAY FROM COAST AND 5-10 KTS NEARER THE COAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS. SEAS 2-4 FT NEAR SHORE AND 4-5 FT OFFSHORE. BOATERS WILL NEED TO WATCH FOR OFFSHORE MOVING STORMS DURING THIS PERIOD (FRI-SAT) AS THE STEERING MOTION BECOMES OFFSHORE. SOME STORMS WILL HAVE FREQUENT CLOUD TO WATER LIGHTNING...GUSTY WINDS AND TORRENTIAL DOWNPOURS. AN ISOLATED WATERSPOUT IS NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. SUN-TUE...SURFACE RIDGE AXIS TO STRENGTHEN EARLY IN THE PERIOD REMAINING SITUATED OVER THE CENTRAL/SOUTH-CENTRAL FL PENINSULA DURING THIS PERIOD. WINDS WILL HOVER BETWEEN SE-S-SW THROUGH THE PERIOD AOB 15 KTS. SEAS 2-4 FT. SHRA/TSRA POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY (30 TO 50 PERCENT). && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... DAB 75 88 75 91 / 50 70 40 60 MCO 74 90 74 93 / 50 70 30 50 MLB 75 88 75 90 / 60 70 40 60 VRB 75 91 75 89 / 60 70 40 60 LEE 75 90 76 93 / 50 70 30 50 SFB 75 91 75 94 / 50 70 30 50 ORL 75 90 76 93 / 50 70 30 50 FPR 74 89 75 90 / 60 60 40 50 && .MLB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. && $$