AFDMOB AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL 253 PM CDT FRI JUL 8 2011 .SHORT TERM [TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT]...LATEST WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS LRG UPR LVL LOW CENTER ABOUT 140 MILES S OF LAFAYETTE LA WITH A GRADUAL WWD MOVEMENT NOTED. TO ITS E...THERE CONTINUES TO BE QUITE A FLARE UP OF TSTMS FROM PANAMA CITY FL SWD INTO THE ERN GULF. NOTHING TO SPEAK OF REGARDING TROPICAL DVLPMT AS HIGH LVL WINDS REMAIN TO HOSTILE. IN FACT...THE OVERALL STRUCTURE TO ERN GULF SFC/LOW LVL TROF WE HAVE BEEN ANALYZING OVR THE PAST COUPLE DAYS HAS BEEN WANING PER LATEST 08.12UTC ANALYSIS OF UPPER AIR/SFC MAPS. THE FCST AREA LOOKS TO REMAIN IN A SUBTLE WEAKNESS BETWEEN AN UPR RIDGE POSITIONED OVR THE PLAINS AND TROF DOWN THE APPALACHIANS. PWATS REMAIN HIGH FROM 2-2.25" WHICH IS ABOUT 120-140% OF NORMAL FOR EARLY JULY. VERY LITTLE TO SPEAK OF REGARDING ANY SFC FOCUS FOR DAYTIME TSTMS OTHER THAN WEAK COASTAL SEA BREEZE AND MERGING OF MESOSCALE BNDRYS FROM TSTMS. THUS... WILL NOT GO ANY HIGHER THAN CHC RANGE FOR TSTMS IN THE NEAR TERM. IMPACTS FM ANY STRONGER TSTMS BEING BRIEF STG WIND GUSTS FROM 35-45 MPH...FQT LTG AND LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL. THE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER IS LOW. VERY LITTLE CHG IN TEMPERATURES WITH NIGHTTIME LOWS IN THE MID/UPR 70S AND DAYTIME HIGHS SAT RANGING FROM 92 TO 97. THE HIGHER NUMBERS BEING N OF THE COAST. HEAT INDICES SAT...102-107. /10 THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK IS MODERATE. .LONG TERM [SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY]...THE UPPER LEVEL LOW S OF LA PROGGED TO CONT RETROGRADING W...APPROACHING THE TX COAST BY SAT EVE THEN INTO S CENTRAL/WRN TX BY THE END OF THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...MID AND UPPER LEVEL RIDGING THAT HAS BEEN CENTERED OVER THE SRN PLAINS BUILDS E THROUGH THE WEEKEND AND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK...BECOMING CENTERED OVER THE MID S. INCREASINGLY HOT TEMPERATURES WILL FOLLOW THE RIDGE EWD...RESULTING IN HIGHS IN THE MID TO UPPER 90S INLAND OVER THE WEEKEND WITH UPPER 90S PREVALENT BY THE EARLY TO MIDDLE PART OF NEXT WEEK. AS USUAL...TEMPS WILL BE A FEW DEGREES LWR CLOSER TO THE COAST. WILL NEED TO MONITOR HEAT INDICES EARLY IN THE UPCOMING WEEK. GRIDDED FCSTS SHOW SVRL AREAS SEEING 108 TO 110 DEGREE NUMBERS MON/TUE. HEAT ADVISORIES MAY BECOME NECESSARY. THERE WILL ALSO BE LITTLE RELIEF AT NIGHT WITH LOWS ONLY DROPPING IN THE MID TO UPPER 70S...STAYING IN THE LOWER 80S AT THE BEACHES. WHILE THERE WILL BE SOME INCREASED SUBSIDENCE WITH THE BUILDING RIDGE...THE AIRMASS WILL BE VERY MOIST WITH PWATS AT OR ABOVE 2 INCHES STRETCHING E TO W ACRS THE GULF COAST THROUGH THE MEDIUM RANGE. IN ADDITION...WITH THE INCR IN HIGH TEMPERATURES...THE SEA BREEZE CIRCULATION SHOULD BE STRONGER. THEREFORE...CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN FAVORABLE FOR THE DVLPMT OF AFTN TSTMS EACH DAY WITH PROBABILITIES REMAINING IN THE 30-50% RANGES. /10 && .AVIATION (18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR EXPECTED NEXT 24 HOURS WITH THE EXCEPTION OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING JUST NORTH OF THE SEABREEZE AT 1930Z. THIS ACTIVITY WILL GRADUALLY BECOME A LITTLE MORE NUMEROUS THROUGH MID AFTERNOON...BUT COVERAGES DON`T WARRANT MORE THAN A VCTS MENTION AT THIS TIME. THE THUNDERSTORMS WILL DIMINISH IN COVERAGE AND INTENSITY BY EARLY EVENING. VFR EXPECTED OVERNIGHT INTO TOMORROW MORNING...ALTHOUGH A SHOWER OR THUNDERSTORM MAY DEVELOP CLOSE TO KPNS 12Z-15Z TOMORROW MORNING WITH THE OFFSHORE ACTIVITY THAT WE EXPECT TO DEVELOP AGAIN. /05 && .MARINE...PERSISTENCE SEEMS TO BE A FAIRLY GOOD FORECAST FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS WITH A WEAK UPPER LOW/TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE JUST TO THE WEST. DOWN AT THE SURFACE...THE WEAK TROUGH OF LOW PRESSURE OVER THE EASTERN GULF IS SHOWING SIGNS OF BEING ABSORBED AND WHAT IS REALLY DRIVING THE WEATHER LOCALLY IS IN THE UPPER LEVELS. WITH THE FORECAST AREA ON THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE UPPER TROUGH...WE CAN EXPECT SCATTERED MORNING SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OFFSHORE DEVELOPING INSHORE IN THE AFTERNOON HOURS. TYPICAL DIURNAL SWING OF THE WINDS EXPECTED AS WELL WITH LIGHT WEST/NORTHWEST AT NIGHT/MORNING PICKING UP FROM THE SOUTHWEST WITH THE SEABREEZE CIRCULATION IN THE AFTERNOON AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. /05 && .FIRE WEATHER...HIGH PRES FCST TO NOSE WWD ACROSS FL INTO THE GULF THROUGH THE WEEKEND. A LGT S/SW FLOW IS FCST WITH LITTLE CHG IN TEMPERATURES. HUMIDITY REMAINS ABOVE CRITICAL LEVELS. DAYTIME MIXED LAYERS FCST TO REMAIN DEEP...RESULTING IN GOOD DISPERSION. TSTMS A BIT HIGHER IN COVERAGE DURING THE AFTNS COULD BRING HAZARDS IN THE FORM OF BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS AND ABRUPT WIND SHIFTS ALG W/FQT LIGHTING TO STATE...FEDERAL AND LOCAL OFFICIALS CONDUCTING FIRE CONTROL. /10 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... MOBILE 76 95 76 94 / 20 40 20 40 PENSACOLA 79 95 79 95 / 20 40 20 40 DESTIN 80 92 80 92 / 30 50 20 50 EVERGREEN 73 97 74 97 / 30 50 20 50 WAYNESBORO 73 97 73 97 / 30 30 20 30 CAMDEN 73 96 74 97 / 30 40 20 40 CRESTVIEW 74 97 73 97 / 30 50 20 50 && .MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...NONE. FL...NONE. MS...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$