AFDMOB

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...AVIATION UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOBILE AL
1259 PM CDT THU JUL 7 2011

.AVIATION (07/18Z ISSUANCE)...VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL
ACROSS MOST OF THE LOCAL FLYING AREA THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.
THE EXCEPTIONS BEING IN AND AROUND THE SCATTERED AFTERNOON
THUNDERSTORMS PROWLING THE REGION TODAY AND PATCHY EARLY MORNING FOG
CREATING SOME LOCALIZED MVFR CONDITIONS. APPEARS THE BRUNT OF THE
THUNDERSTORM  ACTIVITY TODAY WILL OCCUR NEAR AND ALONG THE I-65
CORRIDOR AS WELL AS EAST AND SOUTH OF IT.  /08 JW



*********************PREVIOUS UPDATE*********************************

.UPDATE...UPR AIR ANALYSIS SHOWS A WELL DEFINED UPPER LVL LOW...
SPINNING OVR THE NRN GULF WITH A WEAKNESS IN THE UPR ATMOSPHERE OVR
THE SE. A COMPLICATED AFTN FCST REGARDING TSTM INITIATION WITH THE
LOW TO THE S AND HOW IT INTERACTS W/ MID LVL DISTURBANCES SLIPPING
SE THRU THE MID S. ALSO...H50 TEMPS HAVE WARMED A DEGREE C SINCE 24H
AGO WHICH WOULD ACT TO LIMIT LAPSE RATES. HOWEVER...SFC DEWPOINTS
NEAR 70 ALG W/ HIGHS IN THE MID 90S BRINGS MOST UNSTABLE CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL VALUES TO ~2500 J/KG. PWAT ~ 2 INCHES AS WELL. QUITE A BIT
OF CONVECTION FM THE NRN BAHAMAS ACRS FL TO OFF THE STATE`S W COAST
AS A TROPICAL WAVE INTERACTS W/ NRN GULF UPR LOW. THE SFC TROF/ERLY
WAVE OVR THE E GULF IS HELPING TO MAINTAIN A LGT NRLY FLOW OVR THE
FA AND THIS FOR NOW IS SUPPRESSING ANY LOW LVL FORCING MECHANISM
WHICH WOULD BE BROUGHT ABOUT BY THE SEABREEZE. CU DVLPMT IS STARTING
UP DUE TO INSOLATION AND HEATING AND WE DO XPCT A SRLY FLOW TO SET
UP ALG THE SRN ZONES THRU THE COURSE OF THE AFTN. WHEN THIS
OCCURS...SFC BNDRY SETS UP WITH A LGT E/NE FLOW OVR THE INTERIOR.
CONSIDERING THIS IN TANDEM W/ THE CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL AND DEEP LYR
MOISTURE PREVIOUSLY DISCUSSED...WILL MAINTAIN ISO/SCT TSTMS IN FCST
FOR REMAINDER OF THE DAY. SOME OF THE STRONGER TSTMS LIKELY WILL
PRODUCE BRIEF STRONG WIND GUSTS FROM 35-45 MPH AND FQT LTG. ALTHOUGH
THE RISK OF WIDESPREAD SEVERE TSTMS IS LOW...COULD BE ONE HERE OR
THERE.

THIS AFTERNOON`S WET MICROBURST RISK REMAINS MODERATE. /10

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
MOBILE      94  73  94  76 /  40  20  40  30
PENSACOLA   94  77  94  78 /  30  20  30  30
DESTIN      93  78  90  78 /  30  20  30  30
EVERGREEN   96  70  95  74 /  30  20  50  30
WAYNESBORO  95  70  94  73 /  30  20  50  30
CAMDEN      95  70  94  73 /  30  20  50  30
CRESTVIEW   97  70  95  76 /  30  20  40  30

&&

.MOB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AL...NONE.
FL...NONE.
MS...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$