AFDPHI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MOUNT HOLLY NJ
1050 PM EDT FRI JUL 8 2011

.SYNOPSIS...
LOW PRESSURE IN SOUTHERN NEW JERSEY LATE THIS EVENING WILL MOVE
OUT TO SEA OVERNIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO OUR AREA
DURING SATURDAY AND IT WILL BE OVER THE REGION SUNDAY AND INTO
MONDAY. ANOTHER FRONT MAY BRING MORE UNSETTLED CONDITIONS TO THE
REGION LATER MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SATURDAY MORNING/...
AT 1045 PM, THE SIGNIFICANT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WERE
CONTINUING TO MOVE OFF THE COAST. ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS REMAINED
IN EASTERN PENNSYLVANIA, NEW JERSEY, NORTHEASTERN MARYLAND, AND
NORTHERN AND CENTRAL DELAWARE. A WEAK WAVE RIDING ALONG THE FRONT
WAS SPREADING AN AREA OF LIGHT TO MODERATE RAIN INTO SUSSEX
COUNTY, DELAWARE. THE RAIN SHOULD PASS OFF THE DELAWARE COAST BY
ABOUT 100 AM.

WITH THE END OF THE THREAT OF HEAVY RAIN, WE HAVE CANCELLED THE
REMAINDER OF THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN OUR FORECAST AREA.

WITH ABUNDANT LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN THE WAKE OF THE HEAVY RAIN,
WE HAVE INCLUDED PATCHY FOG FOR OVERNIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY. THE
WIND IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LIGHT OVERNIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SATURDAY MORNING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
THE LAST OF THE CLOUDS AND SCATTERED SHOWERS ASSOCIATED WITH THE
FRONT AND LOW PRESSURE AREAS FROM THE NEAR TERM WILL BE PASSING
OFF THE COAST SAT MORNING. LOW CHC POPS AND A FEW CLOUDS ARE STILL
IN THE GRIDS FOR THE MORNING AREAS ACROSS ERN DELAWARE AND THE SRN
COASTAL WATERS.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD IN SAT AND REMAIN INTO MONDAY. A DRY
FORECAST IS EXPECTED WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. TEMPERATURES WILL
STILL BE VERY WARM...BUT THE LOWER HUMIDITY VALUES WILL MAKE
THINGS COMFORTABLE. SAT NIGHT WILL BE COOL WITH LOWS IN 50S ACROSS
THE NORTHERN AREAS AND LOW TO MID 60S IN MOST OTHER AREAS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
THE MODELS HAVE BEEN PRETTY CONSISTENT THAT THE FLAT HEAT RIDGE
OVER THE EASTERN CONUS WILL RETROGRADE SLIGHTLY TO THE SOUTHWEST.
AFTER THE 500MB TROF PASSES, A CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL
BUILD INTO THE NORTHEASTERN CONUS.

THERE REMAINS DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW ROBUST THE CONVECTION WILL BE
WITH THE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE MONDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. TODAY THE
TIMING LOOKS SLIGHTLY BETTER FOR A MORE ACTIVE TUESDAY. WE OPTED
FOR POPS CLOSER TO THE GFS VS WHAT WOULD BE INFERRED USING THE
ECMWF. AFTER THE FRONT CLEARS THE REGION, OUR CWA SHOULD HAVE A
COUPLE OF DAYS WITH QUITE PLEASANT DEW POINTS. THERE ARE
DIFFERENCES AS TO HOW COOL IT WILL GET, ALTHOUGH THE GAPS ARE
SMALLER THAN YESTERDAY. BASED ON HOW ABOVE NORMAL THIS
METEOROLOGICAL SUMMER HAS BEEN SO FAR, WE HAVE OPTED TO KEEP MAX
TEMPS TOWARD THE WARMER END OF THE ENSEMBLE MEMBERS THROUGHOUT THE
LONG TERM. REGARDLESS AFTER A HOT AND HUMID TUESDAY, LOWER
TEMPERATURES ARE IN STORE, ESPECIALLY AT NIGHT, FOR THE REST OF
THE LONG TERM PERIOD.

&&

.AVIATION /03Z SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG,
KILG, KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

TONIGHT...PATCHY MVFR OR IFR CONDS IN ST/FOG SPREAD S BEHIND THE
DEPARTING LOW.

SATURDAY AFTER 12Z...ANY IFR STRATUS ALONG AND SOUTH OF A KILG-
KACY LINE THROUGH ABOUT 1400 UTC. AFTER THE SURFACE LOW PULLS
AWAY...THE LOW LEVEL INVERSION SHOULD BREAK...AND VFR CONDITIONS
ARE EXPECTED EVERYWHERE FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE DAY. CONVECTIVE
TEMPERATURES COULD BE MET IN THE AFTERNOON...WHICH SHOULD RESULT
IN SCATTERED CUMULUS. HOWEVER...INCREASING STABILITY SHOULD
LIMITED ANY CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.

OUTLOOK...
SAT NIGHT AND SUNDAY...WEAK HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING INTO THE
REGION SHOULD RESULT IN VFR CONDITIONS.

SUN NIGHT...VFR TO START BUT WAA MVFR CIGS MAY DEVELOP IN E PA
LATE.

MONDAY...WARM AIR ADVECTION AHEAD OF A FRONTAL BOUNDARY COULD
RESULT IN SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS LATE MONDAY OR MONDAY
NIGHT...BUT OVERALL VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED. MVFR FOG IS
POSSIBLE EARLY TUESDAY.

TUESDAY...MVFR FOG POSSIBLE EARLY OTHERWISE VFR WITH A CHANCE OF
TSTMS AND ASSOCIATED LOWER CONDITIONS.

&&

.MARINE...
THERE MAY BE SOME FOG LATE TONIGHT AFTER THE PRECIPITATION MOVES
FARTHER OUT TO SEA.

THIS WEEKEND LIGHT WIND WITH AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES POSSIBLE.

THE RETURN FLOW AROUND THE HIGH COULD RESULT IN WINDS AND SEAS
INCREASING MONDAY INTO TUESDAY. THERE IS A CHANCE FOR WINDS TO
GUST TO 25 KNOTS DURING THIS TIME...BUT CONFIDENCE IN THIS IS LOW
FOR NOW.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$