AFDTAE Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Tallahassee FL 316 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 ...New NEAR TERM, SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER, HYDROLOGY... .NEAR TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 A secondary cold front is pushing through the region early this morning and this front has been ushering in the stronger push of colder weather. Despite full sunshine this afternoon, high temperatures will still only be in the mid 60s. These will be the coolest temperatures of the Fall season so far. Later tonight, northwest flow continues but it should subside somewhat given the dry and clear conditions. However, ideal radiational cooling conditions aren`t expected given winds remaining elevated overnight. Low temperatures will be much cooler and in the upper 30s across Alabama/Georgia counties and around 40 in our Florida counties. && .SHORT & LONG TERM... (Friday through Wednesday) Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 At the start of the term, a strong upper level low centering over the Northeast U.S. would have brought an associated cold front through the southeast, reinforcing the cool and dry air that we have been experiencing. Continued northwest flow and PWATs of less than 0.5" will leave us dry for the next several days with cold overnight temperatures for the weekend. Friday`s cold front will arrive during the early morning hours, allowing our afternoon temperatures to remain in the low 60s; and for our AL and GA counties, may struggle to reach 60 degrees. Surface high pressure will fill in behind the front leading to clear skies and light to calm winds during the overnight hours. These conditions will lead to decent radiational cooling and allow for temperatures to fall further into the mid to upper 30s for Friday night into Saturday morning, and again for Saturday night into Sunday morning. Wind chills for our AL and GA counties will be around the low to mid-30s. This may lead to cold-weather sheltering concerns for vulnerable populations. We may also experience some patchy frost develop Saturday and Sunday morning, so be sure to protect sensitive plants. As the surface high traverses east across the FL Peninsula over the weekend, temperatures and dew points begin to gradually increase for the upcoming work week. Afternoon temperatures return to the mid and upper 70s, which is around 10 degrees above the climatological norm. Overnight lows will be in the upper 50s, which is also above normal for this time of year. Surface winds will become southerly again for the start of the work week, allowing for moisture from the Gulf to advect inland, increasing our dew points to the 60s. PoPs throughout the term remain low. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1219 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Dry northwest flow will keep VFR conditions in place through the TAF period. Only aviation concerns will be occasional gusts of 20 knots out of the northwest during daytime hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Solid Advisory-level conditions will continue today into tomorrow following a strong cold front that pushed through on Wednesday. Winds will be out of the northwest with gusts up to around 30kts. Seas will begin to decrease during the afternoon on Friday as winds begin to relax and become more northerly over the weekend. High pressure settles over the region this weekend bringing winds down to a gentle or light breeze with seas averaging 1-3 feet. As we start the new work week, winds will become southerly when the surface high pressure moves east over to the Atlantic. && .FIRE WEATHER... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Recent wetting rains should keep fire weather concerns low despite the breezier and much drier pattern we`ll see on Thursday and Friday. Dispersions will be high this afternoon and remain elevated again on Friday due to elevated northwesterly transport winds and 3 - 5 kft mixing heights. Surface winds will remain elevated around 10 mph with gusts around 20 mph this afternoon. Light winds expected over the upcoming weekend which should allow low fire weather concerns to continue. && .HYDROLOGY... Issued at 311 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024 Little to no rainfall is expected over the next few days into the start of next week. There are no flooding concerns at this time. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not requested. However, spotters are always encouraged to safely report significant weather conditions when they occur by calling the office or tweeting us @NWSTallahassee. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Tallahassee 61 42 60 39 / 0 0 0 0 Panama City 64 46 63 42 / 0 0 0 0 Dothan 61 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Albany 63 39 58 36 / 0 0 0 0 Valdosta 63 40 59 38 / 0 0 0 0 Cross City 66 43 64 40 / 0 0 0 0 Apalachicola 63 47 62 43 / 0 0 0 0 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ108-112-114. High Rip Current Risk through late tonight for FLZ115. GA...None. AL...None. GM...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST /noon CST/ Friday for GMZ730- 750-752-755-765-770-772-775. && $$