AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
436 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM (TDY-FRI)...
Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Skies have gradually been clearing out as drier and cooler air
filters in across the Sunshine State. Meanwhile, an upper level
trough pushes into the Northeast while upper level ridge builds
behind it and into the region. Tight gradient will bring
northwesterly winds across the peninsula through Friday bringing
hazardous marine conditions and high risk of rip currents.
Additionally, high and low temperatures are expected to drop over
10 degrees tonight and Friday. Highs today will struggle to get
above 70 degrees, especially along the Nature Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM (SAT-WED)...
Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

During the weekend and into early next week, high pressure remains
in control of weather conditions. Overnight lows will dip into the
upper 30s north to around 50 degrees south by Sunday morning. As
ridge continues to build, through next week allowing temperatures
to gradually warming up. Winds will also decrease and marine
conditions improve during the period.

This pattern will keep beautiful weather across the area, so get
out there and enjoy the outdoors.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 430 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

VFR conditions prevail with periods of gusty northwesterly winds
in place through the afternoon. Dry and cooler airmass will keep
clear skies area-wide.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 410 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

High pressure builds over the next few days with gusty winds
pushing behind front. Small Craft Advisory remains in effect
through Friday morning. A High Risk of Rip Currents continues
into Saturday evening. Marine conditions gradually improve
through the weekend pleasant boating conditions expected by
early next week.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 404 AM EST Thu Nov 21 2024

Area of high pressure builds in behind this front through the rest of
the week and into the weekend across fire districts. As a result,
dry and cooler conditions prevail during this time. Minimum humidity
values to range between 35-55 percent each afternoon, with some
periods below 35 percent possible, especially over interior portions
of Nature Coast. Gusty northerly winds will also produce some
moderate to high dispersions over the next few days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  68  54  69  50 /   0   0   0   0
FMY  73  53  73  50 /   0   0   0   0
GIF  70  47  70  44 /   0   0   0   0
SRQ  70  58  71  51 /   0   0   0   0
BKV  67  44  67  41 /   0   0   0   0
SPG  68  60  69  55 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 1 PM EST this afternoon for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Tampa Bay waters.

     Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Friday for Coastal waters
     from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal
     waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-
     Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 to 60 NM-
     Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 to
     60 NM.


&&

$$