AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
745 PM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.UPDATE...AT 735 PM EDT DATA FROM THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
DOPPLER RADAR IN RUSKIN WAS SHOWING SOME VERY SPARSE SHOWERS WITH
OCCASIONAL THUNDER MOVING ACROSS MANATEE AND SARASOTA COUNTIES...AND
QUICKLY PUSHING TOWARDS THE COAST. WITH A MORE STABLE ATMOSPHERE
THIS EVENING...AND DAYTIME HEATING NOW FINISHED IT SEEMS THERE WON`T
BE ENOUGH FUEL TO SPARK SIGNIFICANT THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY THROUGH
THE REST OF THE EVENING. BUT WILL KEEP THE ISOLATED/20 PERCENT
COVERAGE ACROSS THE COASTAL COUNTIES AS ANY REMNANT CONVECTION FROM
THE DECAYING SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY COULD BE ENOUGH FOR BRIEF
SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP.

NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES TO THE INHERITED FORECAST PACKAGE WILL BE
MADE FOR THE EVENING UPDATE.

.PREVIOUS SHORT TERM DISCUSSION FROM 203 PM EDT THIS AFTERNOON.

.SHORT TERM (TONIGHT - SUNDAY)...THE 12Z TBW SOUNDING CAME IN VERY
DRY FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR WITH ONLY 1.56 PRECIPITABLE WATER AND A
K-INDEX OF 17. INITIAL CLOUD GROWTH EARLY TODAY WILL LIKELY STALL AS
DRIER AIR ALOFT IS TAPPED AND MIXED TOWARD THE SURFACE. SIGNIFICANT
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT IS LIKELY TO BE DELAYED UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING ALONG A SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY PINNED NEAR THE COAST.
ACTIVITY WILL MOVE OFF SHORE EARLY THIS EVENING AS THE EAST COAST
SEA BREEZE PUSHES THROUGH. 850MB TEMPERATURES NEAR 19 CELSIUS ALONG
WITH A DELAYED SEA BREEZE WILL RESULT IN AFTERNOON HIGH TEMPERATURES
IN THE MIDDLE 90S...WITH SOME NEAR-RECORD UPPER 90S POSSIBLE IN
PLACES AS WELL.

A SIMILAR DAY IS EXPECTED ON SATURDAY ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE A
SLIGHT INCREASE IN MOISTURE. BEST RAIN CHANCES WILL AGAIN BE ALONG
THE SEA BREEZE BOUNDARY WHICH SHOULD MAKE IT A LITTLE FARTHER
INLAND. EXPANDED THE 30 PERCENT RAIN CHANCES A LITTLE BIT TO THE
EAST BUT STAYED WITH 20 PERCENT WELL INLAND FROM THE COAST.

BY SUNDAY...THE SURFACE RIDGE WEAKENS AND SETTLES ACROSS CENTRAL
FLORIDA WHILE THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE PULLS BACK TO THE NORTHWEST. THE
850MB TEMPERATURES COME DOWN A BIT...BUT STILL EXPECT A GENERALLY
HOT DAY WITH JUST A SLIGHTLY BETTER CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.AVIATION...
SRQ SHOULD BE THE ONLY SITE THAT MIGHT SEE A STRAY SHRA AT THE START
OF THE TAF PERIOD. OVERNIGHT...LIGHT EAST WINDS AND RELATIVELY CLEAR
SKIES EXPECTED. THE TYPICAL LOW CLOUDS WILL MOVE IN OVER THE TAF
SITES BY EARLY TO MID MORNING TOMORROW BUT ANY CEILING SHOULD BE
BRIEF SO ONLY INCLUDED FEW-SCT COVERAGE IN THERE FOR NOW. MINIMAL
RAIN CHANCES TOMORROW...SO JUST A MENTION OF CB AT ALL SITES IN THE
AFTERNOON.

&&

.MARINE...HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE REGION WILL BE SLOWLY MIGRATING
SOUTHWARD OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS WITH GENERALLY LIGHT
WINDS...EXCEPT FOR STRONGER AFTERNOON SEA BREEZES NEAR THE COAST. IN
GENERAL...WINDS AND SEAS WILL REMAIN WELL BELOW HIGHLIGHT CRITERIA
THROUGH THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.

&&

$$