AFDTBW

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAMPA BAY RUSKIN FL
218 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2011

.SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH SUNDAY)...STRONG MID LEVEL RIDGING
CENTERED NORTH OF THE STATE WILL SINK SOUTH TODAY OVER THE CWA. H5
HEIGHTS INCREASING TO AROUND 595DM WILL PROVIDE PLENTY OF
SUBSIDENCE TO REDUCE OVERALL CONVECTION. THIS STRONG RIDGING WILL
ONLY BRIEFLY AFFECT THE REGION AS IT SHIFTS WESTWARD BY SATURDAY
AFTERNOON. SURFACE RIDGING WILL GENERALLY BECOME BROAD WITH
PREVAILING FLOW FROM THE EAST.

MODEL SOUNDINGS CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNIFICANTLY DRIER AIR ADVECTING
OVER THE STATE FROM THE SOUTHEAST TODAY. COMBINED WITH A STRONG
SUBSIDENCE INVERSION...OVERALL RAINFALL CHANGES WILL BE SLIM TODAY.
BUMPED THE ENTIRE AREA DOWN TO 20 POPS WITH ONLY ISOLATED SHOWERS OR
STORMS. CONVECTION WILL BECOME MORE TYPICAL BY SATURDAY AND SUNDAY
WITH THE DRIER AIR SHIFTING WEST AND THE MID LEVEL RIDGE WEAKENING
SLIGHTLY. WITH THE SEA BREEZE EXPECTED TO REMAIN NEAR THE
COAST...WILL CARRY 30 POPS ALONG THE COAST SAT AND 40 SUNDAY.
TEMPS WILL BE HOT TODAY AND TOMORROW WITH DECREASED CLOUD
COVERAGE. HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE LOW TO MID 90S WITH UPPER 90S
POSSIBLE INLAND. TEMPS WILL START TO MODERATE SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY.


.LONG TERM (SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY)...UPPER RIDGE DOME HOLDS
OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS WHILE UPPER TROUGH DIGS DOWN THE EASTERN
SEABOARD AND WESTERN ATLANTIC WITH THE FL PENINSULA IN DIVERGENT
UPPER FLOW BETWEEN THESE FEATURES. EMBEDDED VORT MAXES DROP DOWN
THROUGH THE UPPER FLOW AS WEAK SURFACE BERMUDA HIGH PRESSURE AXIS
MEANDERS OF THE FL PENINSULA THROUGH THE PERIOD. MODEL SOUNDINGS
SHOWING SIGNIFICANT MOISTURE INCREASE BY TUESDAY IN UNSTABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR HIGH END SCATTERED DIURNAL POPS ON SEABREEZE
BOUNDARIES THROUGH MID WEEK. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO RUN
SEVERAL DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.


&&

.AVIATION...DRIER ATMOSPHERE AND PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES OVER THE AREA
TODAY FOR VFR CONDITIONS AREA WIDE EXPECT IN ISOLATED LATE AFTERNOON
SEA BREEZE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AFT 20Z THRU AROUND 30/00Z.
BRIEF MVFR CIGS/VSBY POSSIBLE IN CONVECTION.


&&

.MARINE...WINDS AND SEAS WILL SUBSIDE THROUGH TODAY. NO HEADLINES
THROUGH THE WEEKEND AS CONVECTION WILL REMAIN LIMITED AND THE
PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL BECOME BROAD AND WEAK.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...NO FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS BUT DRIER AIR WILL MOVE
OVER THE REGION TODAY. EXPECT RH TO DIP TO AROUND 45
PERCENT...MAINLY INLAND...AS THE DRY AIR MASS SETTLES OVER THE
STATE. RH BEGINS TO MODERATE BY END OF THE WEEKEND WITH SOME
MOISTURE ESTABLISHING BACK OVER THE STATE. ONLY ISOLATED STORMS
EXPECTED TODAY WITH SCATTERED STORMS POSSIBLE NEAR THE COAST ON
SAT AND SUN.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  94  78  94  79 /  20  10  30  20
FMY  96  77  94  77 /  20  10  30  20
GIF  96  75  96  76 /  20  10  20  20
SRQ  94  77  93  78 /  20  10  30  20
BKV  96  72  96  74 /  20  10  30  20
SPG  94  82  93  82 /  20  10  30  20

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...NONE.
GULF WATERS...NONE.
&&

$$