CFWBOX COASTAL HAZARD MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 1003 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009 ...ONE OR POSSIBLY TWO GALE CENTERS WILL AFFECT COASTAL SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND BETWEEN FRIDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT... MAZ019-022>024-161015- /O.CON.KBOX.CF.A.0001.091016T1000Z-091016T1800Z/ EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA-BARNSTABLE MA-DUKES MA-NANTUCKET MA- 1003 PM EDT THU OCT 15 2009 ...COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON... A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM 6 AM EDT FRIDAY THROUGH FRIDAY AFTERNOON. GALE FORCE NORTHEAST WIND GUSTS OF 35 TO 45 KNOTS BETWEEN MIDNIGHT AND NOON FRIDAY MORNING WILL DEVELOP 10 TO 15 FOOT SEAS FOR THE HIGH TIDE CYCLES ON FRIDAY. THIS COMBINED WITH ASTRONOMICALLY HIGH TIDES AND A 1.2 TO 1.8 FOOT SURGE WILL LEAD TO WIDESPREAD MINOR COASTAL FLOODING /SPLASH OVER AND POSSIBLY A FEW ROAD CLOSURES/. THERE IS A LOW TO MODERATE PROBABILITY OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING /NUMEROUS ROAD CLOSURES AND ISOLATED STRUCTURAL DAMAGE/. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IS THE MOST PROBABLE OUTCOME BUT A 2 FOOT STORM SURGE AND SEAS A COUPLE OF FEET HIGHER WOULD RESULT IN A MODERATE FLOOD EVENT. WHILE THERE WILL BE A LULL IN THE WINDS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY...THE CURRENT OUTLOOK IS FOR ANOTHER NOREASTER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY BUT WITH LESS CERTAINTY ON TRACK AND INTENSITY. CONSIDERABLE AND POSSIBLY SUBSTANTIAL BEACH EROSION FROM COASTAL FLOODING ON AT LEAST SIX SUCCESSIVE TIDE CYCLES FROM FRIDAY THROUGH SUNDAY COULD BE SIGNIFICANT. IF THE SUNDAY GALE CENTER WERE TO TRACK CLOSER OR BECOME STRONGER...A MORE SERIOUS COASTAL FLOOD THREAT WOULD EMERGE FRIDAY OR SUNDAY. ANYONE WITH EAST FACING OCEAN EXPOSURE COASTAL CONCERNS SHOULD MONITOR FORECASTS THROUGH THIS WEEKEND AND BE PREPARED TO ADJUST PLANS. && ALL TIDE HEIGHTS ARE RELATIVE TO MEAN LOWER LOW WATER. TIME OF HIGH TOTAL TIDES ARE APPROXIMATE TO THE NEAREST HOUR. SCITUATE TOTAL ASTRO TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 2.6 16/04 AM 2.0 0.6 5-9 NONE 11.0 16/10 AM 10.0 1.0 10-11 MINOR 10.9 16/11 PM 9.8 1.1 9-10 MINOR 10.7 17/11 AM 10.2 0.5 8 NONE 10.1 17/11 PM 9.6 0.5 7-8 NONE 11.2 18/12 PM 10.3 0.9 9 NONE SANDWICH HARBOR TOTAL ASTRO TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 8.7 15/10 PM 8.3 0.4 3-4 NONE 10.5 16/10 AM 9.2 1.3 6 NONE 10.3 16/11 PM 9.0 1.3 5-6 NONE 9.6 17/11 AM 8.8 0.8 4 NONE 9.0 17/11 PM 8.2 0.8 4 NONE 9.7 18/12 PM 8.9 0.8 5 NONE PROVINCETOWN HARBOR TOTAL ASTRO TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 6.2 15/10 PM 6.4 -0.2 2-3 NONE 6.3 16/10 AM 6.5 -0.2 3-4 NONE 6.2 16/11 PM 6.4 -0.2 2-3 NONE 7.1 17/11 AM 6.8 0.3 2 NONE 6.6 17/11 PM 6.3 0.3 2 NONE 7.2 18/12 PM 6.9 0.3 2 NONE CHATHAM - EAST COAST TOTAL ASTRO TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 4.3 15/10 PM 4.3 0.0 3-5 NONE 5.5 16/10 AM 4.4 1.1 11-13 NONE 5.6 16/11 PM 4.4 1.2 10-12 NONE 5.2 17/11 AM 4.6 0.6 8-9 NONE 4.8 18/12 AM 4.3 0.5 8 NONE 5.5 18/12 PM 4.7 0.8 9-10 NONE CHATHAM - SOUTH COAST TOTAL ASTRO TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 4.7 15/10 PM 4.5 0.2 2-4 NONE 5.9 16/10 AM 4.6 1.3 3 NONE 5.9 16/11 PM 4.5 1.4 3 NONE 5.5 17/11 AM 4.8 0.7 2-3 NONE 5.2 18/12 AM 4.5 0.7 3 NONE 5.7 18/12 PM 4.9 0.8 3 NONE BUZZARDS BAY - WOODS HOLE TOTAL ASTRO TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 2.6 15/07 PM 2.6 0.0 1-2 NONE 3.8 16/07 AM 3.0 0.8 3 NONE 3.7 17/08 PM 2.6 1.1 2 NONE 3.8 17/08 AM 3.1 0.7 2 NONE 2.5 17/09 PM 2.4 0.1 2 NONE 3.7 18/09 AM 3.2 0.5 2 NONE VINEYARD HAVEN TOTAL ASTRO TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 3.8 15/10 PM 3.4 0.4 2-3 NONE 5.2 16/10 AM 3.5 1.8 3 NONE 5.0 16/10 PM 3.3 1.7 2 NONE 4.7 17/10 AM 3.6 1.1 2 NONE 4.0 17/11 PM 3.2 0.9 2 NONE 4.7 18/11 AM 3.7 1.0 2 NONE NANTUCKET TOTAL ASTRO TIDE DAY/TIME TIDE SURGE WAVES FLOOD /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ /FT/ CATEGORY ------- ---------- ------- ------- ------- ---------- 4.0 15/10 PM 3.7 0.3 3-6 NONE 5.3 16/11 AM 3.8 1.5 12 MINOR 5.1 16/11 PM 3.6 1.5 9-11 NONE 4.7 17/11 AM 3.9 0.8 7-8 NONE 4.4 18/12 AM 3.6 0.8 7-8 NONE 4.7 18/12 PM 4.0 0.7 8-9 NONE $$