CWFCRP. THUS...NO UPDATES ISSUED AT THIS TIME BUT WILL UPDATE LATER IF NEEDED IF TEMPS/POPS DO NOT MATERIALIZE. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 629 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008/ DISCUSSION...SEE AVIATION SECTION. AVIATION...MODERATE SOUTHEAST LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO MAINTAIN THE LOW LEVEL MOIST LAYER IN PLACE FROM THE LOWER RIO GRANDE VALLEY TO THE BRUSH COUNTRY. STRATUS/MVFR CEILINGS WILL PREVAIL OVER THE INLAND COASTAL PLAINS OF THE SOUTHERN COASTAL BEND WEST TO THE RIO GRANDE THROUGH THE MID MORNING HOURS BEFORE CEILINGS LIFT INTO VFR CATEGORY. ISOLATED/SCATTERED SHOWERS...EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON/EVENING...TO THE WEST OF A FALFURRIAS TO PLEASANTON LINE. THIS ACTIVITY COULD PROVIDE MVFR CEILINGS/VSBYS THROUGH 06Z. SOME DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHWEST GULF OF MEXICO IS FILTERING INTO THE MID COAST THIS MORNING. WITH CLEAR SKIES...PATCHY FOG/MVFR VSBYS WILL CONTINUE UNTIL AROUND 15Z. EXPECT REPEAT OF STRATUS OVERNIGHT AS LOW LEVEL JET WILL BE IN PLACE WITH MAINLY MVFR CEILINGS TO THE WEST OF A CORPUS CHRISTI TO BEEVILLE LINE. PATCHY FOG WILL AGAIN BE POSSIBLE AROUND VICTORIA BEFORE DAYBREAK MON. PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 420 AM CDT SUN OCT 12 2008/ SHORT TERM (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...THE MID TO UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OVER SOUTH TEXAS TODAY BEFORE GRADUALLY TRANSLATING NORTH OF THE AREA ON MONDAY. THE GOES SOUNDER IMAGE OF PRECIPITABLE WATER SHOWS AN AXIS OF MOISTURE FROM THE LOWER TEXAS COAST NORTH-NORTHWEST INTO THE RIO GRANDE PLAINS WITH VALUES OVER 2 INCHES OVER THE BRUSH COUNTRY. GFS/NAM HOLD THE 85H THETA-E RIDGE AXIS OVER THE THIS REGION INTO MONDAY MORNING. EXPECT TO SEE ISOLATED STREAMER TYPE SHOWERS THIS MORNING WITH 25 KNOTS OF SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 925 MB. INSERTED MENTION OF THUNDER IN THE FORECAST FOR THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS THE BRUSH COUNTRY AS FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOWED THAT WITH HEATING TO AROUND 90 DEGREES...IT WOULD BE ENOUGH TO OVERCOME MID LEVEL INVERSION/CINH IN PLACE. DRIER AIR OVER THE NORTHERN GULF OF MEXICO WILL BE EDGING TOWARD THE REGION TONIGHT BUT MODELS STILL INDICATED PLENTY OF LOW LEVEL MOISTURE TO EXPECT BROKEN STRATUS TO DEVELOP AGAIN EXCEPT POSSIBLY ACROSS THE MID-COAST REGION. LOW LEVEL NEGATIVE THETA-E ADVECTION WILL LEAD TO A DECREASE IN CLOUDS ON MONDAY EXCEPT EXTREME WESTERN SECTIONS. WILL CONTINUE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF PRECIP FOR FAR WEST. MARINE (TODAY THROUGH MONDAY)...A MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE THROUGH TONIGHT WITH SCEC CONDITIONS FOR THE COASTAL WATERS. THE GRADIENT WILL RELAX A BIT ON MONDAY AS THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVES INTO NORTHWEST TEXAS. LONG TERM (MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY)...GFS AND ECMWF BEGIN THE PERIOD SIMILARLY ENOUGH BY DEPICTING A CLOSED UPPER LOW IN THE VICINITY OF THE 4 CORNERS REGION AMIDST A BROAD TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO THE DAKOTAS. AT THE MID/UPPER LEVELS, AN INVERTED TROUGH/EASTERLY WAVE WILL BE IN THE VICINITY OF SOUTH TEXAS AS HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT RESIDES OVER THE SOUTHEAST U.S. SCATTERED SHOWERS/THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE ON TAP FOR THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY AS THE INVERTED TROUGH BEGINS TO INTERACT WITH ELEVATED PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES REACHING INTO THE 1.75 TO 2.0 INCH RANGE. SCATTERED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY LOOKS TO CONTINUE INTO WEDNESDAY AS THE GFS AND ECMWF DISAGREE ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF A SURFACE FRONT PASSING THROUGH THE REGION...GFS SAYS NO/ECMWF SAYS YES. EITHER WAY, THE LOCAL AIRMASS REMAINS ABUNDANTLY MOIST AND OTHER WEAK INVERTED TROUGHS/EASTERLY WAVES WILL MOVE INTO THE WESTERN GULF/SOUTH TEXAS FOR CHANCE POPS THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT A FRONT WILL MOVE INTO SOUTH TEXAS LATE FRIDAY, WHICH WILL FINALLY USHER IN SOME DRIER AIR FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. HAVE REMOVED MENTION OF PRECIPITATION FOR SATURDAY BASED ON THIS SCENARIO. INTERESTINGLY, NUMERICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES HIGH TEMPS WED-FRI ACROSS MUCH OF THE AREA IN THE MID/UPPER 80S AND STILL SOMEWHAT ABOVE NORMAL VALUES DESPITE SUBSTANTIAL CLOUD COVER AND THE SURFACE COLD FRONT SLATED FOR FRIDAY. NOT SUPER CONFIDENT IN THIS TEMPERATURE FORECAST, BUT WILL HAVE TO WAIT A FEW SHIFTS BEFORE IT BECOMES A LITTLE MORE CLEAR AS TO WHETHER WE MAY ACTUALLY SEE SOME HIGH TEMPS IN THE UPPER 70S/LOWER 80S DURING THE WED-FRI TIMEFRAME. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... CORPUS CHRISTI 88 73 89 73 88 / 20 10 10 20 40 VICTORIA 89 67 89 71 87 / 10 10 10 10 40 LAREDO 91 75 92 74 91 / 30 20 20 10 20 ALICE 91 72 91 72 90 / 20 10 10 10 40 ROCKPORT 87 75 88 75 88 / 10 10 10 20 40 COTULLA 90 72 92 70 90 / 20 20 20 10 30 KINGSVILLE 89 72 90 72 89 / 20 10 10 20 40 NAVY CORPUS 87 77 87 75 86 / 20 10 10 20 40 && .CRP WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$