FWFMFL. MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW GOOD AGREEMENT IN FORECASTING AN EASTWARD TRANSLATION OF A WEAK MID-LEVEL VORT MAX...CURRENTLY LOCATED OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...DURING THE DAY ON SUNDAY. THIS WILL ULTIMATELY ALLOW LOW-LEVEL FLOW TO GRADUALLY VEER FROM NORTHWEST TO EAST ON SUNDAY...SETTING THE STAGE FOR AN INCREASING THREAT OF RIP CURRENTS ALONG THE ATLANTIC COAST. LOW-LEVEL WINDS WILL CONTINUE TO VEER TO THE SOUTHEAST ON SUNDAY NIGHT/MONDAY...WITH DEVELOPING WARM ADVECTION REGIME LEADING TO RAPIDLY INCREASING RAINFALL CHANCES DURING THIS PERIOD. MODELS INDICATE THAT RICH TROPICAL MOISTURE WILL SPREAD INLAND DURING THE DAY ON MONDAY...WITH SURFACE DEW POINTS INCREASING TO 65-70 F AND 850 MB DEW POINTS CLIMBING TO 12-15 C. LARGE SCALE ASCENT WILL INCREASE DURING THE DAY WITH APPROACH OF MID-LEVEL SHORTWAVE FORM THE WEST AND INCREASING WARM ADVECTION...AND EXPECT A GOOD COVERAGE OF RAIN AND SHOWERS FOR THE ENTIRE AREA FROM MONDAY INTO TUESDAY MORNING. WILL ALSO CONTINUE TO MENTION ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS...GIVEN PRESENCE OF 30-40 KNOT FLOW IN THE MID-LEVELS AND MAGNITUDE OF INSTABILITY BOTH AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT. GIVEN LACK OF A STRONG UPPER LEVEL SHORTWAVE...EXPECT THE COVERAGE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO REMAIN ISOLATED AT BEST. HOWEVER...GIVEN VERY GOOD CONSISTENCY AMONG THE GFS/UKMET/CMC GUIDANCE...HAVE INCREASED POPS INTO THE LIKELY CATEGORY FOR MUCH OF THE REGION ON MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT. PRECIPITATION CHANCES WILL CONTINUE THROUGHOUT THE DAY ON TUESDAY AND INTO AT LEAST THE FIRST HALF OF WEDNESDAY...BUT WILL GRADUALLY DIMINISH AS LOW-LEVEL WINDS VEER TO SOUTHWEST IN RESPONSE TO THE PASSAGE OF A PRE-FRONTAL TROUGH ASSOCIATED WITH DEVELOPING SURFACE CYCLONE OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN STATES. TIMING OF THE TRUE COLD FRONTAL PASSAGE IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT THIS POINT...WITH AVAILABLE GUIDANCE FROM THE GFS/ECMWF/CMC ALL INDICATING A DIFFERENT TIMING DURING THE DAY ON WEDNESDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL SPLIT THE DIFFERENCE AND INDICATE FRONT ENTERING THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...AND MOVING OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST BY LATE AFTERNOON. NCEP ENSEMBLE MEAN PLOT SUGGEST THAT A DEEP UPPER LOW WILL REMAIN ANCHORED OVER THE NORTHEASTERN U.S. FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...WITH WEST TO NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER SOUTH FLORIDA. THUS...EXPECT DRY AND SEASONABLY COOL WEATHER TO PERSIST FROM THURSDAY INTO NEXT WEEKEND. && .AVIATION... HIGH LEVEL CIRRUS CONTINUES TO STREAM NE ACROSS SOUTH FLORIDA WHICH WILL BE SCATTERED TO BROKEN AT TIMES THROUGH THE DAY. FORECAST SOUNDINGS INDICATE DRY AIR IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER...HOWEVER DEEP MIXING MAY ALLOW FOR SCT CU TO FORM IN THE 4-5K FOOT RANGE DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. ONLY PROBLEM FORESEEN AT THIS TIME IS SOME PATCHY FOG AROUND THE KTMB AREA...BUT THIS SHOULD BURN OFF RELATIVELY QUICKLY. && .MARINE... TRANQUIL MARINE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO CONTINUE THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF NEXT WEEK...DESPITE STRONGER NORTHERLY FLOW ALLOWING GULF STREAM SEAS TO BUILD SLIGHTLY ON SUNDAY. STRONGER SOUTHERLY/SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS TOWARD THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK WILL PRESENT THE GREATEST CONCERN...WITH SEAS LIKELY APPROACHING 6 FEET BY WEDNESDAY. && .FIRE WEATHER... GREATEST SHORT TERM CONCERN WILL COME THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS INTERIOR LOCATIONS WITH A DRY AIRMASS PRESENT AT THE SURFACE AND AT LEAST SOME POTENTIAL FOR DEEPER MIXING OF DRY AIR FROM ALOFT. A RED FLAG WARNING WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED FOR PORTIONS OF THE AREA...AND WILL ADDRESS IN THE FIRE WEATHER PRODUCTS LATER THIS MORNING. AFTER TODAY...ONSHORE FLOW AND INCREASING AMOUNTS OF BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE WILL LIMIT THE FIRE WEATHER THREAT UNTIL THE END OF NEXT WEEK WHEN DRY AIR WILL ONCE AGAIN SPREAD SOUTHWARD BEHIND A COLD FRONT. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... WEST PALM BEACH 77 57 75 64 / - 10 10 10 FORT LAUDERDALE 78 61 76 67 / - 10 10 10 MIAMI 80 61 77 67 / - 10 10 20 NAPLES 74 56 74 59 / - - - 10 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...NONE. AM...NONE. GM...NONE. && $$