HWOHGX) HAS
THIS HANDLED APPROPRIATELY. ISOLATED PCPN SHOULD DISSIPATE WITH
LOSS OF HEATING BEFORE EARLY EVENING. FURTHER NORTH...LESS
CONVECTION THAN PREVIOUS DAYS AND DO NOT ANTICIPATE POPS BEING
NEEDED TONIGHT.

PWATS REMAIN IN THE 1.5 TO 1.7 INCH RANGE TOMORROW SO SOME
ISOLATED SHRA/TSRA AGAIN POSSIBLE WITH PROBABLY A BIT MORE
COVERAGE THAN TODAY. GFS/NAM MAX TEMP STILL RUNNING COOL BUT
GETTING BETTER. HAVE NOT CHANGED MAX/MIN TEMPERATURES MUCH THE
NEXT SEVERAL DAYS BUT GENERALLY LEANED TOWARDS A BLEND OF THE
WARMER ECMWF/GFS ENSEMBLE MOS FOR MAX TEMPS.

REAL CHANGES ON THE WAY FOR FRIDAY AND ESPECIALLY THE REST OF THE
WEEKEND. COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH THE PLAINS FORECAST BY GFS/ECM
INTO NE TX BY SATURDAY MORNING. POPS ON THE INCREASE AND WILL
SHADE THE FORECAST TOWARDS ECM-LIKE SOLUTIONS. BOTH MODELS WET BUT
DIFFER ON TIMING/LOCATION SO ALSO TENDED TO BROAD BRUSH POPS. FEEL
BEST CHANCE FOR RAINS IS LATE SATURDAY NIGHT INTO MONDAY. WEEKEND
RAIN TOTALS OF 1.00 TO 1.25 INCHES ON AVERAGE POSSIBLE WITH A FEW
LOCATIONS POSSIBLY RECEIVING MORE. ECMWF DOES PUSH FRONTAL SYSTEM
OFF THE COAST BEFORE STALLING. GFS KEEPS BOUNDARY/PCPN FURTHER
NORTH. ECM ALSO REMAINS WEAKER WITH ANY POSSIBLE LOW DEVELOPMENT
IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. GIVEN THE CLOSENESS TO SHORE OF ANY
DEVELOPMENT AS A HINDRANCE I KIND OF LIKE A 3 TO 1 BLEND OF ECM
TO GFS FOR THE FORECAST SUNDAY EVENING-TUESDAY WITH SCATTERED
PCPN CHANGES MAINLY OFFSHORE AND ALONG THE COASTAL AND NEAR
COASTAL COUNTIES. 04

&&

.MARINE...
OTHER THAN ISOLATED SHOWERS AND POSSIBLE THUNDERSTORMS...ANOTHER
TWO OR THREE DAYS FAIRLY NICE WEATHER CAN BE EXPECTED WITH HIGH
PRESSURE OVER THE UPPER TEXAS COASTAL WATERS. AN UNSETTLED WEATHER
PATTERN BEGIN BY LATE SATURDAY AS A FRONTAL SYSTEM MOVES SOUTH OF
THE RED RIVER VALLEY AND APPROACHES THE COAST. THE MODELS DIFFERED
ON HOW FAR SOUTH OR OFFSHORE THE FRONT WILL EVENTUALLY TRACK...
ALTHOUGH THERE SEEMED TO BE A CONSENSUS ON THE FRONT STALLING OUT
NEAR OR OFF THE COAST. THE MODELS ALSO DIFFERED ON THE IMPACTS VIA
WINDS AND RAIN CHANCES TO THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS...ALTHOUGH THE
MOST UNSETTLED WEATHER LOOKS TO OCCUR FROM LATE SATURDAY THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY.

40

&&

.AVIATION...
VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED FOR THE MOST PART. ISOLATED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH 23Z OVER THE METRO AIRPORTS AND
THOSE JUST TO THE SOUTH. THERE IS AN OUTSIDE CHANCE FOR MVFR
CEILINGS FOR A SHORT TIME FOLLOWING SUNRISE THURSDAY. FELT THAT THE
BEST OPPORTUNITY WILL BE AT KCLL WHERE THE CEILINGS SHOULD SCATTER
OUT BY AROUND 14Z.

40

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      78  98  79  96  77 /  10  20  10  30  30
HOUSTON (IAH)              78  96  79  95  76 /  10  20  10  40  20
GALVESTON (GLS)            83  92  83  91  81 /  10  20  10  30  20

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...NONE.
GM...NONE.
&&

$$