HWOPHI. LOW PROB OF A THUNDERSTORM.  WE SAW
THIS MORNINGS DAY 5 OUTLOOK VIA SPC.  FOR NOW THE TSTM MIGHT BE
EARLY MORNING? JUST DONT HAVE A GOOD FEEL FOR THIS POSSIBILITY.
NOTE...THERE IS AN EML INDICATION FOR WED. IF CONVECTION OCCURS
AND EML IS STILL THERE... BIG HAILERS AND DAMAGING WIND WOULD BE
MORE LIKELY IF CONVECTION CAN BE INITIATED IN MODELED 4000J
AIRMASS. BIG CAPE CAN RESULT IN BIG WIND. QUESTION IS WHETHER
GUIDANCE EML IS CORRECT.

THURSDAY...NOT QUITE AS HOT BUT STILL A CHANCE OF NUDGING 90F KPHL
SOUTH WITH A QUICK START TO RISING TEMPS BUT DEWPOINTS DOWN BY ABOUT
10 DEGREES.  THIS COULD BE DAY 4 OF A HEAT WAVE MANY AREAS FROM KPHL
SOUTH.  SOME POSSIBILITY OF A LINE OF TSTMS LATE IN THE DAY.  JUST
DIDN`T WORK THIS ASPECT INTO THE FCST ATTM.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY...HPC GUIDANCE WHICH IS DRY RELIEF SO FAR.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
THE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR KPHL, KPNE, KTTN, KABE, KRDG, KILG,
KMIV, KACY AND SURROUNDING AREAS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN NEARLY STATIONARY TO OUR WEST THIS
EVENING AND TONIGHT...AND A SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL BE MAINTAINED
THROUGH THE PERIOD. THE USUAL DIURNAL INFLUENCE OF INCREASED SPEED
DURING THE DAY AND A DECREASE DURING THE NIGHT IS EXPECTED. COPIOUS
LOW LEVEL MOISTURE EXISTS ACROSS THE AREA WITH MID AND UPPER 60S DEW
POINTS...AND THIS WILL BE MAINTAINED THROUGH THE PERIOD.

THE CUMULUS FIELD IS FORECAST TO DISSIPATE THIS EVENING WITH THE
CESSATION OF AFTERNOON HEATING. A PERSISTENCE FORECAST OF ISOLATED
TO SCATTERED SHOWERS AND EVEN A FEW THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE KEPT FOR
MOST OF THE TAF SITES FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING..AS
ACTIVITY WAS ALREADY NOTED OVER OUR SOUTHERN AND WESTERN ZONES AT
1740Z. A VICINITY SHOWER REMARK WAS USED FOR A FEW HOURS FOR KABE
AND KRDG IN VIEW OF CURRENT RADAR IMAGERY. ELSEWHERE...AS THE
OVERALL AREAL COVERAGE WILL BE LOW...ONLY A CB REMARK WAS USED.

THE CONTINUATION OF A WARM AND MOIST AIRMASS ALONG WITH A LIGHT
SOUTHERLY FLOW IS EXPECTED TO LEAD TO PATCHY IFR CONDITIONS LATER
TONIGHT AND EARLY SUNDAY MORNING. THE NAM MODEL SOUNDINGS AND MOS
GUIDANCE WERE MORE PESSIMISTIC THAN THE GFS. A TEMPO GROUP FOR IFR
CONDITIONS WAS USED FOR NOW...BUT LATER FORECASTERS MAY NEED TO
JUST USE A CATEGORICAL IFR GROUP FOR LATE TONIGHT...MORE SO FOR
CEILINGS THAN FOR FOG...ALTHOUGH THE MORE RURAL SITES MAY LOWER TO A
MILE OR LESS IN FOG.

ANOTHER ROUND OF CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP SUNDAY AFTER THE
PATCHY OR POSSIBLE MORE EXTENSIVE STRATUS MIXES OUT...BUT IT MAY NOT
BE QUITE AS EXTENSIVE AS THIS AFTERNOON. A RIDGE BUILDING ALOFT IS
EXPECTED TO CAP MOST CONVECTION...SO A CB REMARK WAS NOT USED FOR
THE 30 HOUR KPHL TAF.

OUTLOOK...
THE FRONT TO THE WEST IS FORECAST TO WEAKEN AND OR DISSIPATE...AND A
RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AT UPPER LEVELS...SO TYPICAL SUMMERY
WEATHER OF PATCHY LATE NIGHT IFR CONDITIONS...INCLUDING FOG AND SOME
STRATUS...ALONG WITH DIURNAL CUMULUS IS EXPECTED TO RULE THROUGH
ABOUT MIDWEEK. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH NORTHERN AREAS
MONDAY...BUT A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT IS FORECAST ABOUT
WEDNESDAY...AND THIS MAY INITIATE STRONG CONVECTION LATER WEDNESDAY
INTO WEDNESDAY NIGHT. COOLER HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED TO MOVE IN
TO CLOSE OUT THE WEEK.

&&

.MARINE...
ON THE WEATHER MAP...A WEAKENING SURFACE FRONT TO THE WEST OF OUR
COASTAL WATERS AND BUILDING HIGH PRESSURE JUST TO THE EAST WILL
MAINTAIN A MODEST SOUTHERLY FLOW ACROSS OUR AREA TONIGHT THROUGH
MONDAY. A WEAK COLD FRONT MAY MOVE THROUGH LATER MONDAY. A STRONG
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE IN THE UPPER ATMOSPHERE WILL BUILD FROM THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...THROUGH THE TENNESSEE VALLEY...AND
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC REGION EARLY THIS
WEEK...WITH THE CENTER OF THE HIGH OVER THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS.

SEAS MAY BUILD A BIT IN THE SOUTHERLY FLOW LATE SUNDAY SUNDAY NIGHT
AND INTO MONDAY. WAVEWATCH BUILDS SEAS BRIEFLY TO 5 FEET AT BUOY
44009 SUNDAY NIGHT...AND A BIT MORE AND FOR A LONGER TIME AT BUOY
44025...BUT SINCE THIS IS A MARGINAL SITUATION AND EFFECTS MAY ONLY
BE OVER THE OUTER COASTAL WATERS...NO SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY WILL BE
ISSUED AT THIS TIME. THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED.

A SOMEWHAT STRONGER COLD FRONT IS EXPECTED LATE WEDNESDAY OR MORE
LIKELY EARLY WEDNESDAY NIGHT...AND THIS COULD INITIATE SOME STRONG
THUNDERSTORMS. HIGH PRESSURE IS EXPECTED FOR LATER THIS COMING WEEK.

&&

.PHI WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...NONE.
NJ...NONE.
DE...NONE.
MD...NONE.
MARINE...NONE.

&&

$$