CLOSED IN THIS COUNTY (FROM LSRJAX). ALTHOUGH THE EAST-SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE LIGHT...SOME SMOKE COULD MAKE IT INTO PORTIONS OF DIXIE AND LAFAYETTE COUNTIES TONIGHT. THEREFORE...WE WILL UPDATE THE GRIDS AND THE ZONES TO ADD SMOKE. WE WILL ALSO RUN THE HYSPLIT MODEL TO GET A BETTER FEEL FOR THE ORIENTATION OF THE SMOKE PLUME AND THE AREAS IT WILL AFFECT. OTHERWISE...THE PREVIOUS FORECAST IS ON TRACK AND NO OTHER UPDATES ARE ANTICIPATED AT THIS TIME. && .MARINE...NOCTURNAL SURGE IN THE EASTERLIES WILL BE EXPECTED AROUND MIDNIGHT TONIGHT AND CONTINUE THROUGH THE EARLY MORNING HOURS. WIND SPEEDS WILL INCREASE TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS...CAUTION LEVELS. THIS WILL CREATE CHOPPY CONDITIONS THROUGH THE NIGHT...ESPECIALLY FOR THE SMALLER BOATS. && .AVIATION...VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS THROUGH THU. THERE WILL BE SOME WIND GUSTS AT TIMES IN THE 16-20 KT RANGE THU AFTERNOON OUT OF THE S. && .PREV DISCUSSION... 300 PM EDT WED APR 30 2008 .SHORT TERM (TONIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT)... HIGH CENTER MOVES OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST TONIGHT INTO THURSDAY WITH AN INCREASING LOW LEVEL SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW BRINGING HIGHER LEVELS OF MOISTURE BACK OFF THE GULF OF MEXICO. WEAK RIDGING DEVELOPING ACROSS THE CENTRAL GULF COAST WILL PUSH SLOWLY EAST TAKING UP A POSITION OVERHEAD AROUND SUNRISE THURSDAY MORNING. WITH THE SLIGHTLY TIGHTER GRADIENT AND INCREASING MOISTURE...WILL NOT SEE AS COOL A NIGHT WITH LOWS GENERALLY IN THE LOWER AND MIDDLE 50S INLAND AND MIDDLE 50S TO LOWER 60S ALONG THE COAST. WARM AND SEASONABLE DAY FOR THURSDAY. HIGH PRESSURE OFF THE SOUTHEAST COAST WILL CONTINUE TO RIDGE BACK WEST OVER THE AREA WITH MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGING CONTINUING TO BUILD ALOFT. WITH 850MB TEMPS IN THE 12-14C RANGE SHOULD HAVE LITTLE TROUBLE REACHING THE LOWER TO MIDDLE 80S AWAY FROM THE IMMEDIATE COAST. AT THE COAST WITH THE SE FLOW OFF THE COOLER SHELF WATERS...HIGH TEMPS WILL LIKELY BE HELD BACK TOWARD 80 DEGREES. WITH THE ONSHORE FLOW AND HIGHER MOISTURE IN THE LOWER/MIDDLE LEVELS WOULD EXPECT TO SEE A SCT CU FIELD DEVELOP...ESPECIALLY FOR THE WESTERN HALF OF THE AREA WHICH SHOULD TURN OUR MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES DURING THE MORNING TO PARTLY CLOUDY FOR THE AFTERNOON. LITTLE CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER OUR AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO THE DAY ON FRIDAY. CONTINUED SOUTHEASTERLY FLOW WILL BRING EVEN FURTHER LOW LEVEL MOISTURE NORTHWARD WITH LOW TEMPERATURES NEAR IF NOT A BIT ABOVE CLIMO INTO FRIDAY MORNING. HOWEVER...FURTHER TO THE WEST THE NEXT SYSTEM SCHEDULED TO EFFECT OUR REGION WILL BE TAKING SHAPE ACROSS THE PLAINS STATES. POTENT PIECE OF SHORTWAVE ENERGY/CLOSED LOW FEATURE WILL EJECT OUR OF THE INTER-MOUNTAIN WEST LATE THURSDAY AND THURSDAY NIGHT WITH ASSOCIATED SURFACE LOW ORGANIZING NEAR NEBRASKA/IOWA REGION. UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM MOVES TO THE THE UPPER AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BY FRIDAY NIGHT WITH THE SURFACE LOW REACHING THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES. COLD FRONT TRAILING SOUTH FROM THIS LOW IS EXPECTED TO EXTEND FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI VALLEY FRIDAY NIGHT. MID/UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OVER OUR AREA WILL HOLD TIGHT FOR MUCH OF FRIDAY BUT THEN BEGIN TO BREAK DOWN FRIDAY NIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY AS MID/UPPER LEVEL ENERGY TO THE WEST BEGINS TO APPROACH THE SOUTHEAST. WOULD EXPECT A WARM AND INCREASINGLY MUGGY DAY ON FRIDAY AS SOUTHERLY FLOW CONTINUES BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND THE APPROACHING COLD FRONT TO THE WEST. EXPECT HIGHS ONCE AGAIN IN THE 80S. LOW TEMPERATURES FRIDAY NIGHT LIKELY TO NOT FALL BELOW THE UPPER 50S TO NEAR 60 FOR MOST LOCATIONS WITH MIDDLE AND UPPER 60S COMMON ALONG THE COAST FROM FRANKLIN COUNTY WESTWARD. && .LONG TERM (SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY)... THE LONG TERM PERIOD STARTS OFF WITH A COLD FRONT MOVING INTO THE REGION LATE FRIDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY. COMPARISON OF THE MODEL FIELDS BETWEEN THE 30/00Z GFS AND THE 29/12Z EURO SHOW ONLY SUBTLE DIFFERENCES. A QUICK PEEK AT THE 30/00Z EURO CONTINUES TO INDICATE BETTER THAN AVERAGE AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME RANGE BETWEEN THE GFS AND EURO FOR THIS SYSTEM. BOTH MODELS INDICATE THAT OVERALL MAGNITUDE OF QG FORCING WILL BE DIMINISHING THROUGH TIME AS THE UPPER LEVEL SYSTEM RAPIDLY MOVES NORTHEASTWARD INTO SOUTHERN ONTARIO. THIS WILL LIKELY YIELD A DECAYING LINE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS AS THE FRONT MOVES EAST. IN FACT...THIS LINE MAY BE SIMILAR TO THE LAST COUPLE OF SYSTEMS THAT MOVED THROUGH OVER THE LAST COUPLE OF WEEKENDS IN THAT MOST AREAS WILL RECEIVE RAIN BUT IT WILL BE QUITE LIGHT AND LAST ONLY A SHORT TIME. OF COURSE...WE STILL HAVE SOME TIME TO MONITOR THIS SYSTEM`S PROGRESS. FOLLOWED CLOSE TO PREVIOUS FORECAST FOR POPS...EXCEPT WENT A LITTLE HIGHER IN OUR WESTERN ZONES WHERE CONFIDENCE IS HIGHER FOR PRECIP ON SATURDAY. COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE REGION SLOWLY SATURDAY NIGHT AND EXIT TO THE EAST BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE GFS AND EURO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF A WEAK WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE FORMING ON THE TAIL END OF THIS BOUNDARY...WHICH COULD LEAVE LINGERING SHOWER ACTIVITY IN THE SE BIG BEND AND S CENTRAL GA ON SUNDAY...SO LEFT IN A SLIGHT CHANCE POP FOR THESE AREAS. HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD INTO THE REGION SUNDAY EVENING BRINGING CLEAR SKIES. THERE ISN`T MUCH COOL AIR BEHIND THIS SYSTEM...SO TEMPERATURES AT NIGHT WON`T DROP OFF VERY FAR BELOW CLIMO AT ALL SUNDAY NIGHT. A SHARP WARMING TREND WILL BE IN STORE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY AS MID LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS OVER THE REGION WITH HIGHS REACHING INTO THE MID AND UPPER 80S BY TUESDAY. A DEVELOPING STORM SYSTEM ACROSS THE NATION`S MID SECTION WILL TAKE SHAPE WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND HEAD EASTWARD. AT THIS TIME...THERE IS CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY ABOUT THE STRENGTH...TIMING AND TRACK OF THIS SYSTEM...SO KEPT POPS IN THE LOW CHANCE CATEGORY LATE WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY. && .AVIATION... HIGH PRESSURE WILL GRADUALLY SLIDE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WITH PREVAILING WINDS GRADUALLY VEERING TO THE SOUTHEAST. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AT ALL TERMINALS. && .MARINE... HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE CAROLINAS THIS MORNING WILL MOVE EAST TO OFF THE CAROLINA COAST THIS EVENING. WITH THE HIGH CENTER TO OUR EAST...WINDS WILL FLOW FROM A GENERAL SOUTHEAST DIRECTION THROUGH THURSDAY NIGHT. EXPECT AN EASTERLY NOCTURNAL SURGE IN WINDS TO DEVELOP FROM EAST TO WEST LATE THIS EVENING INTO THE EARLY MORNING HOURS OF THURSDAY WITH WINDS LIKELY REACHING EXERCISE CAUTION CRITERIA. THE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE FURTHER SOUTHEAST TOWARDS BERMUDA BY FRIDAY WITH FLOW COMING AROUND TO THE SOUTH. WINDS WILL STRENGTHEN ONCE AGAIN TO CAUTIONARY LEVELS AND POSSIBLY NEAR ADVISORY LEVELS FOR MUCH OF THE MARINE AREA THURSDAY NIGHT INTO SATURDAY AS THE GRADIENT TIGHTENS BETWEEN THE HIGH TO OUR EAST AND AN APPROACHING FRONT TO THE WEST. THIS FRONT IS EXPECTED TO CROSS THE FORECAST WATERS DURING THE UPCOMING WEEKEND. && .FIRE WEATHER... MOISTURE WILL INCREASE A BIT ON THURSDAY AS LOW LEVEL FLOW TURNS TO THE SOUTH. HOWEVER...STILL ENOUGH DRY AIR ABOVE THE SURFACE TO MIX DOWN AND YIELD DURATION OF LOW RH FOR INLAND FLORIDA COUNTIES. COASTAL AREAS MARGINAL ON DURATION. HOWEVER...HIGH MIXING HEIGHTS AND WARM TEMPS WILL YIELD HIGH DISPERSIONS FAIRLY CLOSE TO THE COAST. THEREFORE...WILL UPGRADE FIRE WEATHER WATCH TO RED FLAG WARNING FOR ALL FLORIDA COUNTIES FOR THURSDAY. WILL MENTION IN TEXT TO EXCLUDE IMMEDIATE COASTAL AREAS WHERE RH WILL REMAIN ABOVE 35 PERCENT. WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY FLOW INTO FRIDAY...RH VALUES EXPECTED TO REMAIN JUST ABOVE 35 PERCENT...SO NO HEADLINES EXPECTED. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... TALLAHASSEE 49 85 58 85 61 / 0 0 0 10 10 PANAMA CITY 59 80 63 81 66 / 0 0 0 10 20 DOTHAN 52 84 61 83 64 / 0 0 0 20 20 ALBANY 51 84 58 84 59 / 0 0 0 10 10 VALDOSTA 48 85 56 85 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 CROSS CITY 49 86 57 87 59 / 0 0 0 0 10 && .TAE WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... AL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 6 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: COFFEE...DALE...GENEVA...HENRY...HOUSTON. GA...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAKER...BEN HILL...BERRIEN...BROOKS...CALHOUN... CLAY...COLQUITT...COOK...DECATUR...DOUGHERTY...EARLY... GRADY...IRWIN...LANIER...LEE...LOWNDES...MILLER... MITCHELL...QUITMAN...RANDOLPH...SEMINOLE...TERRELL... THOMAS...TIFT...TURNER...WORTH. FL...RED FLAG WARNING UNTIL 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN...DIXIE...FRANKLIN... GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON... JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY...MADISON...TAYLOR... WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM EDT /12 PM CDT/ TO 8 PM EDT /7 PM CDT/ THURSDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: BAY...CALHOUN... DIXIE...FRANKLIN...GADSDEN...GULF...HOLMES...INLAND WALTON...JACKSON...JEFFERSON...LAFAYETTE...LEON...LIBERTY... MADISON...TAYLOR...WAKULLA...WASHINGTON. GM...NONE. && $$ UPDATE...GIBBS AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...CAMP/WOOL LONG TERM...GODSEY PUBLIC/MARINE...MROCZKA