SPSHGX). TEMPS WILL REMAIN WELL ABOVE NORMAL TONIGHT
WITH THE LAST ROUND OF STRATUS DEVELOPMENT EXPECTED AS A 30 KT LOW
LEVEL JET REMAINS IN PLACE OVER THE AREA. SFC WINDS WILL BE LOWER
ON TUESDAY AS LOW PRESSURE LIFTS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE GREAT
LAKES AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT SLACKENS OVER THE AREA. A BIT MORE
CLOUD COVER IS EXPECTED AS WELL...WITH MAX TEMPS CLOSE TO TODAY`S
LEVELS.

CHANGES IN THE UPPER AIR PATTERN TAKE PLACE TOWARD THE MIDDLE AND
LATTER PART OF THE WEEK WITH A SUMMER-LIKE REGIME TAKING SHAPE OVER
THE GULF COAST REGION. HIGH PRESSURE AT THE SURFACE AND ALOFT OVER
THE SOUTHEAST WILL RETROGRADE WEST ACROSS THE AREA BY WEDNESDAY.
LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL BECOME VERY LIGHT BY WEDNESDAY LASTING THROUGH
THE WEEKEND...WITH THE TYPICAL LAND BREEZE/SEABREEZE INTERACTION
DEVELOPING EACH DAY. THE COMBINATION OF CLEAR SKIES...LOWER
DEWPOINTS AND LIGHT WINDS WILL RESULT IN COOLER OVERNIGHT LOW
TEMPERATURES THIS PERIOD. HOWEVER...HIGHS WILL REMAIN SEVERAL
DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF THE UPPER RIDGE. GFS
BUFR SOUNDINGS SHOW A BREAKABLE CAP EACH DAY. HOWEVER...MOISTURE
WILL BE SEVERELY LACKING (PWS GENERALLY BELOW 1.2 INCHES). AS A
RESULT...HAVE CHOSEN TO LEAVE PRECIP OUT OF THE FORECAST THROUGH
DAY 7. LATEST RUNS OF THE GFS/ECMWF SHOW THE UPPER RIDGING
WEAKENING THIS WEEKEND AS A TUTT LOW DEVELOPS OVER THE WESTERN
GULF. MAX TEMPS SHOULD BEGIN TRENDING DOWNWARD THIS WEEKEND INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK. IF THIS PATTERN CHANGE PANS OUT THEN WE WILL SEE
THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME SEABREEZE CONVECTION BY EARLY NEXT WEEK.

SPRING 2011 (MARCH THROUGH MAY) WILL FINISH AS THE DRIEST SPRING
OF ALL-TIME FOR HOUSTON...AND THE FIRST OR SECOND WARMEST SPRING
ON RECORD AS WELL. SEE CLIMATE SECTION BELOW FOR AN INITIAL BRIEF
SUMMARY.

35

MARINE...
MODERATE TO STRONG ONSHORE FLOW WILL CONTINUE TODAY. SCA FOR ALL
AREAS. 7 TO 8 FEET EXPECTED SOUTHWEST FRINGES OF 20 TO 60 NM
REGION. TIGHT PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL GRADUALLY RELAX THIS COMING
NIGHT LOWERING SCA FOR EASTERN PORTIONS OF MARINE AREA PROBABLY AFTER
MIDNIGHT. LIGHT TO MODERATE ONSHORE FLOW SHOULD PREVAIL TUESDAY
AND THROUGH REST OF THE WEEK. EXPECT GRADUAL LOWERING OF WAVE HEIGHTS
FOLLOWING LOWER WIND SPEEDS.  37

CLIMATE...
SPRING 2011 (MARCH THROUGH MAY) WILL FINISH AS THE DRIEST SPRING
OF ALL-TIME FOR HOUSTON/IAH AND HOUSTON/HOBBY...AND THE FIRST OR
SECOND WARMEST SPRING ON RECORD FOR BOTH SITES AS WELL. FOR BOTH
SITES...THE TINY AMOUNT OF RAINFALL THIS SPRING SHATTERS THE
PREVIOUS RECORD.

FOR COLLEGE STATION...THIS SPRING WILL RANK AS THE ALL-TIME
WARMEST AND THE FOURTH DRIEST. FOR GALVESTON...IT WILL RANK AS THE
FIRST OR SECOND WARMEST ON RECORD AS WELL.

LOWEST RAINFALL - MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 31ST*:
* ASSUMES NO RAINFALL THROUGH TUESDAY

HOUSTON/IAH
1. 2011 - 1.22 INCHES
2. 1996 - 2.73 INCHES
3. 2003 - 3.56 INCHES
4. 1998 - 3.57 INCHES
5. 1901 - 3.90 INCHES

HOUSTON/HOBBY
1. 2011 - 0.97 INCH
2. 1963 - 2.09 INCHES
3. 1996 - 2.19 INCHES
4. 1960 - 2.70 INCHES
5. 2003 - 2.91 INCHES

COLLEGE STATION
1. 2003 - 2.42 INCHES
2. 2002 - 3.17 INCHES
3. 1961 - 3.18 INCHES
4. 2011 - 4.06 INCHES
5. 1962 - 4.78 INCHES

GALVESTON
1. 1963 - 0.81 INCH
2. 2003 - 1.79 INCHES
3. 1978 - 2.00 INCHES
4. 1960 - 2.02 INCHES
5. 1958 - 2.25 INCHES
.
12. 2011 - 3.20 INCHES

HIGHEST AVERAGE TEMPERATURE - MARCH 1ST THROUGH MAY 29TH:

HOUSTON/IAH
1. 1963 - 73.4 DEGREES
2. 2011 - 73.1 DEGREES
3. 1908 - 72.8 DEGREES
4. 1967 - 72.4 DEGREES
5. 2006 - 71.9 DEGREES

HOUSTON/HOBBY
1. 2011 - 73.4 DEGREES
2. 1967 - 72.8 DEGREES
3. 2006 - 72.2 DEGREES
4. 1991 - 72.1 DEGREES
5. 2000/1963 - 72.0 DEGREES

COLLEGE STATION:
1. 2011 - 72.8 DEGREES
2. 2006 - 71.4 DEGREES
3. 1963 - 70.7 DEGREES
4. 1967 - 70.5 DEGREES
5. 1955 - 70.3 DEGREES

GALVESTON
1. 2006 - 73.3 DEGREES
2. 2011 - 72.8 DEGREES
3. 1882 - 72.1 DEGREES
4. 1879 - 72.0 DEGREES
5. 1967/1878 - 71.8 DEGREES

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
COLLEGE STATION (CLL)      75  96  72  97  70 /   0   0   0   0   0
HOUSTON (IAH)              76  93  72  94  71 /   0   0   0   0   0
GALVESTON (GLS)            79  89  77  90  75 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...WIND ADVISORY UNTIL 7 PM CDT THIS EVENING FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: AUSTIN...BRAZORIA...BRAZOS...BURLESON...CHAMBERS...
     COLORADO...FORT BEND...GALVESTON...GRIMES...HARRIS...
     HOUSTON...JACKSON...LIBERTY...MADISON...MATAGORDA...
     MONTGOMERY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...TRINITY...WALKER...
     WALLER...WASHINGTON...WHARTON.

GM...SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 1 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM HIGH
     ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO
     FREEPORT OUT 20 NM.

     SMALL CRAFT ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM CDT TUESDAY FOR THE FOLLOWING
     ZONES: WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL
     20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP
     CHANNEL OUT 20 NM.

&&

$$